The Japan Preview: 1/15/12 Edition (SW Dies Down, No Vita Presence)
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 15 January 2012 / 5,897 Views
The latest set of preliminary data has arrived from Japan. For the second week of January, all hardware typically drops off sharply. Software dropped off this week as well - only two games sold over 50,000 this week, compared to two games selling over 100,000 last week and Marioland a hair away from 100,000 as well.
1) Super Robot Taisen OG Saga: Masou Kishin II - Revelation of Evil God (PSP) - 70,000
2) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 59,000
3) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 47,000
4) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 45,000
5) Inazuma Eleven Go Shine / Dark (3DS) - 25,000
6) Musou Orochi 2 (PS3) - 24,000
7) Final Fantasy XIII-2 (PS3) - 23,000
9) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 20,000
9) Shinrei Camera: Tsuiteru Techou (3DS) - 20,000
10) Monster Hunter Portable 3 (PSP) - 16,000
12) Go Vacation (Wii) - 9,000
12) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (PS3) - 9,000
14) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 8,000
14) Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Ketteiban (Wii) - 8,000
15) Frontier Gate (PSP) - 7,000
In addition to the games above, Mario Kart Wii (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Wii Party (Wii), Magician's Quest: Oshare na Mahou Tsukai (DS), and Inazuma Eleven Strikers 2012 Xtreme (Wii) should all end up in the final top twenty data as well.
The big question for this week is what level the new hardware will hold at this week. Vita and 3DS sold almost 300,000 units last week. Hardware sales will typically fall to 40-55% of the first week of January in the second week of January. Anything outside that range on the positive side is higher than expected demand, while anything outside that range on the negative side is lower than expected demand. All hardware last week increased in the first week of January besides PS2 and Vita, so don't be surprised if Vita ends up below 15,000 units this week. 3DS in contrast will likely still be over 100,000 units this week, which is a strong figure for just about any time of year in Japan (the US equivalent is like selling 250,000 - 300,000 units a week early in November when there is only a modest seasonal lift at play).
Barring some kind of unexpected collapse, 3DS should be able to top 5m in Japan in February, and sell through over 1m units in January to March 2012. Games should continually be announced for 3DS starting perhaps at Nintendo's financial briefing in a couple weeks, as it's been a long time since anything has sold 5m units in a year in Japan as 3DS will from February 26, 2011 to mid-February 2012. DS did sell 4.9m in the year to June 2008, but that was almost four years ago already. Wii, PS3, and PSP never got to even 4m units a year in Japan at any point, while DS once topped 8m units in a year.
Looking ahead, PSP, PS3, and Wii don't have much software coming in the short term that is 'big'. More importantly, Vita has nothing that looks relevant either for months, so the big question is where Vita bottoms out in early 2012 before PSP / PS3 / X360 games begin moving to Vita later in the year. Vita is in the classic chicken and egg scenario though at the moment - software can't sell well because the base is still tiny, and base is still tiny because the software isn't selling well (yet). Assuming Vita does somehow get to 2m+ by the end of 2012, it should be fine despite the slow start.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
27 Comments
@cyberninja45: I like Nintendo handhelds and love my 3DS, but I want the vita to be a success too. I don't want cheap mobile games ruling the handheld market. Its time for us to support dedicated handhelds. If you like Sony games buy the vita, and if you like Nintendo games buy the 3DS but please lets support this handhelds!
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I agree 100%. More competition means more, better games. Better games equal better sales hence silencing those who say dedicated handheld gaming systems are dead. That being said, I think the Vita will do ,much better in the US. It's game lineup will resonate more with North American consumers. Japan just wants monster collecting and love sims (Which are both awesome in their own right) which the Vita doesn't have yet.
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At last fandom put aside to support the industry! Good on you guys.
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Mario Kart 7, SM3D Land, and Monster Hunter 3D should all hold really well over 2012. Should also be interesting to see how the legs on FF XIII-2 hold up.
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I'm really impressed by the 3DS' top 4. Normally Nintendo's handheld SW sales are kept high by Nintendo legs, but its nice to see Inzuma and MH as foreign legs, I think this is something new for a Nintendo platform since a very long time.
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More like: Vita = investment from Sony
It's not possible to gain without betting. In any industry that is...
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The Vita deserves what's it gets because Sony pulled another PS3. Overshooting the market with a device that is more about everything else, and less about games. Nintendo understands the the business of gaming, and Sony is trying to figure out the gaming business. Only when they do that they will get things together. The problem is the industry can't wait, and they will get passed by.
How is it less about games? In terms of quality, the Japanese launch had plenty of great games even if they weren't system sellers. The upcoming months have even more quality games (like Gravity Daze) even if they aren't system sellers.
Nintendo didn't supported the 3DS with high quality games until a couple of months ago (I don't count shody remakes like OoT3D). How in the world do they understand the business of gaming? If they did, they wouldn't have slashed the price of the 3DS by 40% in Japan in such a short time.
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How is it less about games? In terms of quality, the Japanese launch had plenty of great games even if they weren't system sellers. The upcoming months have even more quality games (like Gravity Daze) even if they aren't system sellers.
Nintendo didn't supported the 3DS with high quality games until a couple of months ago (I don't count shody remakes like OoT3D). How in the world do they understand the business of gaming? If they did, they wouldn't have slashed the price of the 3DS by 40% in Japan in such a short time.
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Disagree, pretty much all improvements from PSP -> Vita are game related, especially with the second analogue, touch screen, and back touch.
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I think you should take the other colour pill in your matrix next time. PSV with best start up lineup in recent history. If it doesn't show Sony is serious about gaming side of it then I'm speechless.
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If the west launch will be as bad as the japan launch ... will the vita disappear from the market?
I don't see how it would STAY in the market, being as the 3DS is growing way too fast, while the phone games will dominate the other side of the handheld spectrum. I don't believe the Vita will have much of a chance.
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That depends whether Sony sees a chance to reduce losses or eventually gain money on it. If the best economical action would be to discontinue it, they definitely would. I think profit is at hand though.
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So what are the odds for a big tittle being announced exclusively for the vita? Until now the biggest is the gundam game....
I'd say quite high. Sony is not sitting off idly I can assure you of that!
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"Assuming Vita does somehow get to 2m+ by the end of 2012" I would think VITA would sell less than PSP's first year in Japan as it has fallen behind PSP's pace and PSP only sold about 2m in its first year.
And why would it be ? There's plenty of software coming for PSV in next months
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We shouldn't hurry things. Vita will succeed but it needs time, It's expensive, and not supported with A titles in Japan, To me I felt like Sony should release it first in the west and support it with titles the west like before, but choosing Japan first would've at least had one or two software that they like.
Tales of Innocence R is the only Vita title upcoming that should provide a bump for Vita hardware sales. Not much of one but something. Who knows, it may be like the console Tales titles and sell well for switching to Sony system. Honestly, it looks like it was made for PSP and quickly changed to Vita so Namco could have something else for it. As for everything else, good for the 3DS. Personally, I hope Inazuma Eleven GO and Final Fantasy XIII-2 keep selling.
Nintendo doesn't CARE about Competition. Watch the interview with Reggie Fils-Aime on CES 2012. He stated that Nintendo doesn't care what Sony or Microsoft do. Nintendo only want to expand on Gaming and Entertainment. Worrying about competition keep your HOPE down. People who want competition are people who want everything to end. I Nintendo win the competition then Sony is out. If Nintendo doesn't care about competition Sony won't be out.
I enjoy watching Sony fail but damn, this is absurd. Price cut the thing and watch it move units like crazy. Hand helds cannot cost console prices. Consumers do not want this no matter what we have to lose in terms of power.
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i dont know why a great Console doing bad is making you happy... but anyway, Vita deserves more.
Tales of Innocence R is the only Vita title upcoming that should provide a bump for Vita hardware sales. Not much of one but something. Who knows, it may be like the console Tales titles and sell well for switching to Sony system. Honestly, it looks like it was made for PSP and quickly changed to Vita so Namco could have something else for it. As for everything else, good for the 3DS. Personally, I hope Inazuma Eleven GO and Final Fantasy XIII-2 keep selling.
I think Gravity Daze can have some impact, when does it release in Japan?
Comments below voting threshold
"More importantly, Vita has nothing that looks relevant either for months" The new Tales game is coming out at the end of the month for Vita. This is a huge title I don't know how you could have missed it. Maybe pre-orders are low? Looking at Amazon Japan its in the Top 5 best sellers.....
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I've pointed this out many many times but the Tales game is a remake of a 4 year old DS game, that itself sold 260k lifetime in Japan. It really isn't a huge title at all. It's a moderate title, however people aren't really going to buy a PSV for a remake of a recent game.
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While it may sell ok, the new Tales game is NOT a huge title - it is not a new game, but a port of a game that as I understand it was considered a not very good entry in the Tales series. That is why Source is disregarding this one - while it may cause a bump, it is nothing significant either.
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Vita has nothing for months? Since when was a tales game a nothing. Tales of innocence R is coming the end of this Jan.
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Looks like thesource famous Nintnendo predictions are back ;) 3DS would have to average 70-80k each week to sell milion from Jan to end of march. And his Sony hate too :)
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Wow that comment got buried quick. Ease up guys I'm only messin' around *burp*. On a more serious note, the problem with the psVita right now is the name as vita means 'life' in latin( i think). This name is misleading for consumers as we can see from it's current situation. So I suggest a name change to PS Mortuus. This will let up a lot of confusion surrounding this product.
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That was actually kinda funny, too bad you already trashed your name.
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Keyboard is playing up again I see, had to change it, well don't be surprised that your comments get buried, it's like saying your pleased that a HW is doing badly which can be flamebait
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As a fan of Nintendo, I am quite pleased with Vita's poor performance.
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Surely as a fan of Nintendo you should be pleased with the 3DS' good performance? Whether the Vita does well or not doesn't matter, as long as the 3DS does well. I think we need the Vita to succeed at least moderately to keep clear competition in the handheld industry.
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More competition = more effort from Nintendo. Don't know why you should be pleased.
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@cyberninja45 As a fan of Nintendo, i feel ashamed by your comment.
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Vita isn't a month old yet. The 3DS needed software and it got it. The Vita will get software soon as well.
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Schadenfreude much? Last generation showed that the handheld market is now big enough for Nintendo to enjoy the success they've always had, and for others to have some decent success. I'm happy to see that the 3DS got as much of a boost as I was hoping for from the combination of Christmas and the two mario games.
Vita should be fine, it just needs some of (already announced) hardware pushers to come along.
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