Disruptive Dangers Posed to Sony and Microsoft by the Wii U
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 25 June 2011 / 5,475 Views
Nintendo launches the Wii U sometime after March 2012. The new system follows the Wii, one of the greatest gambles in the history of consumer electronics. Attending Nintendo's E3 2011 event, I wasn't quite sure what Nintendo was intending to do with the Wii U, but I've come up with quite a few proposals that feel are very bold and potentially disruptive to Microsoft and Sony based on what has been accomplished with the X360 and PS3. If nothing else, the leap from Wii to Wii U looks much more impressive than the DS to 3DS jump, for graphics, game play, and features. If 3DS to DS was GBA to GB, Wii U to Wii looks more like DS to GBA.
Disrupting Living Room Dominance
Microsoft and Sony have long been battling to control the living room, by trying to make their boxes the dominant box of the room, instead of TV + Cable. That you can now watch movies, TV shows, sports, and so on with your X360 or PS3 is tantamount to this drive.
The Wii U however turns this approach on this head. For the first time in the history of console video games, a non-competitive relationship can exist between users with dramatically different tastes who share the same living room. No longer is the living room an 'all TV', 'all movies', or 'all video game' experience at any given moment. Wii U will make the living room far more social - it is now supportive of users playing video games and watching TV. You might think so what - but if the Wii U can stream Zelda from your console to its screen it can sure as hell stream, at least theoretically, Gone With the Wind on Netflix to the screen too. With the capabilities of the new screen Nintendo will be giving everyone with an internet connection essentially, a proprietary second television for their living room - a portable television that plays console video games without wires.
My guess is, the original Wii controller could be used to play a (non-online) game, in the room, while a Wii U controller is used for downloading or watching a movie in a room as well - the potential for Netflix and other media companies NOT to be in competition with games while the games machine is on and PLAYING GAMES should assure support from new media companies that could make Microsoft and Sony quite nervous, simply because usage rates for other, non-games media could sky-rocket.
Dangers of Wii U for the PS3 to PS4 Transition & the X360 to X720 Transition
The Wii U, if it launches well, is a problem for Microsoft and Sony for a couple of reasons that are similar to the original Wii. To date, every attempt to argue the inferiority of the Wii to date has been blunted pretty well by Nintendo. Initially graphical fielity was the argument - but even now that doesn't seem to matter very much as millions continue to buy Wii.
Other attempts followed. Sony & Microsoft asked the market, if we add motion controls will you kill Wii? The market said Wii still has more motion games and at a cheaper price. Stronger core third party support? Wii has more exclusives from third parties said the market. Drop the price hundreds of dollars in four years? Wii is still cheaper, and publishers like the size of the base.
This isn't to say that these moves by Sony and Microsoft have been completely ineffective but they came far too late to knock Nintendo back to pre-2007 levels of success in the near future. In 2007-2010 Nintendo profited nearly $10 billion, most of it from Wii, and directly at the expense of Sony's decade of console dominance. Having already added motion controls to their hugely expensive console investments, adding the 'Wii U controller' to X360 or PS3 is highly unlikely - it would be tantamount to adding Move or Kinect to PS2 or Xbox.
Nonetheless, Sony and Microsoft probably don't have the balls to release a PS4 or X720 that isn't a quantum leap graphically over PS3 / X360 / Wii U since they've just spent five years taunting Nintendo about Wii's graphical capacity. That means the new boxes will, wait for it, be far superior visually once again to Wii U but far more expensive, while the older systems, X360 and PS3 will be inferior visually to Wii U in the same way that PS2 was to Wii. Moreover, the new X360 and PS3 will probably need new control schemes again, or else, if the Wii U launches well, Wii U will simply create entirely new types of game play and form a very broad audience. On the other hand, Wii U is not predestined to be a smash hit either, so Sony and Microsoft will need some time to decide if the controller is worth copying, a very high risk / reward proposition for each of the big three.
Overall, what this means is, funded by its recent cash intake, Nintendo has developed a new console with similar, but slightly superior tech to X360 and PS3, as well and a plethora of control options. Moreover, Nintendo has already begun to push back against Sony and Microsoft advantages from the Wii era, just as Kinect and Move were meant to contain Wii. The Wii U, because of its reported 50%+ increase in power over PS3, should have superior versions of some major HD games, as well as "core" HD exclusives that are simply impossible, due to graphical fidelity or the new controller, on X360 / PS3.
Wii U still will be missing Gran Turismo and Halo and a hand full of other major franchises, but for some people, particularly Wii fans and those into the 'best graphics', X360 and PS3 could begin to look obsolete within a year or two of the Wii U launch if Western third party support is strong. EA, Activision, THQ, Ubisoft, and Take Two all look like they're solidly on board with the Wii U. For consumers that want top core games from almost everybody - Mario, Zelda, Madden, Battlefield, Call of Duty, Pokemon, Assassin's Creed, Arkham City, Darksiders, etc, and the strong library of motion-gaming franchises Wii has built up, Wii U will be a very strong proposition. Much of the reason Wii has only slowed, but not collapsed, in the wake of X360 / PS3 price cuts, Kinect, and Move is that it is ultimately Nintendo, almost by itself, that brought motion controls to the position that they are in now. Move and Kinect are not failures, but the software libraries will always be behind Wii for motion controls. In contrast, Wii U will have dozens of great motion-titles at launch simply by being compatible with Wii, plus whatever new content it gets and apparently, a lot of major Western content.
Many game players are likely to ask, at least in 2012-2013, in what appears to be the window before PS4 / X720, why they should wait for PS4 / X720 when a system with better graphics, major Nintendo & Core games, major motion games, and new ways to play is already available at what is likely to be a cheaper price than the next Sony and Microsoft systems particularly if they have currently own a Wii and / or a X360 / PS3.
Going After Sony: Preventing the Return of Third Party Exclusivity
Offering substantial economic and base advantages for publishers, Sony had dominated video games from about 1997 to 2006. Cracks in the economic advantages began to show in 2005-2006, when DS sold absurdly well in Japan and took up an increasingly large portion of Japanese publisher resources. X360 also built up a temporary monopoly on 'next generation' hardware in 2005-2006, getting exclusive titles that were impossible to make on PS2, or superior on X360. By the end of 2007, as Wii exploded and PS3 struggled, with PS2 game purchasing rates negating its huge base, the model of exclusivity was destroyed. Major games went to as many platforms as possible, exclusives became increasingly rare and uneconomical. Sony's dominance was based on exclusives, when the exclusives ended, so did Sony's dominance.
In the years to Wii U, little has changed on this front. When Wii U launches in 2012, Sony looks like it will once again be ceding base and economic advantages as has been the case in the most recent era. As far as base goes, if you want to make a motion game that uses a 'wand', Wii / Wii U will be better options than Move. For shooters, X360 will still be a better option. Games that need a lot of computing power for physics will be on Wii U exclusively or Wii U / PS3 / X360, games using assymetrical game play or the newest motion controls will be Wii U exclusive, and by the time PS4 releases it will be more economical to support Wii U than PS4.
Initially, Wii U will of course be a much a smaller software market than PS3. However, publishers like to experiment with new properties when usage rates for a console are highest and the base is set to grow the most. So long as the Wii U base grows somewhat quickly, publishers should be happy to support Wii U with a lot of games, even with graphics similar to PS3 / X360 because Wii U can do things those machines can't. Wii had dozens of motion-experiments early on, and even in the past two years, as publishers focused on how Wii stood out from PS2 (motion) instead of how it was similar (graphics).
Should Sony (and / or Microsoft) ape the feature-set of Wii U in 2013-2015 if it proves to be successful, Nintendo should be able to ride out the base (from launching first) and economic advantages (cheaper development) to pretty large numbers, once again preventing Sony from building a huge cache of exclusives as it had in the PS1 and PS2 eras.
Going After Microsoft: Taming the Online Advantage
Much of what has been said about Sony applies to Microsoft. Since Microsoft is dependent on third parties as Sony is, Nintendo does have to keep Microsoft from building up a cache of third party hits. Initially, Kinect looked like it might be a threat to build up a huge amount of third party exclusive content, but right now most of the content is in dancing, sports, and fitness, where Wii is still strong. The danger had been core games performing very well with Kinect, but that hasn't happened yet.
Given all of that, Nintendo looks like it will attempt to bridge the gap between the online services between X360 and Wii with Wii U. The main reason for this is to prevent Call of Duty and other major shooter franchises from being gimped on Wii U compared to the X360 and PS3 since they are heavily reliant on online multiplayer modes. For players that want top content, solid online play, motion gaming, the best graphics, and Nintendo content, Wii U could end up being the only necessary console if the online setup is handled correctly. Nintendo probably doesn't even need all of the online features on X360 / PS3 for it to be 'enough', the game play just has to be comparable given the other features of the console.
If the game play is comparable, the screen on the controller should be able to help with the other online services, simply by allowing media companies to sell their content to users when the Wii U is on but not being played. High usage rates, due to the screen, should help Nintendo bridge the gap between Live and Wii U even with a less sophisticated online infrastructure.
The other advantage is that Nintendo could in theory develop a game store for simple downloadale games just to be played on the new controller. An entire new set of indie developers that is used to making titles for the Ipad could be drawn in to develop for the new controller, rather than for the TV - while publishers and existing indies already making games for WiiWare, PSN, and XBLA continue to support the system with console-ish downloadable titles. The controller will likely be an excellent market for downloadable games like Risk, Monopoly, Checkers, and Chess, as it can literally be set down on a table like a real board game without the mess of metal top hats and paper money. Once again, in theory two adults could be playing a downloadable game of Scrabble on the controller while the kids play / watch Pokemon on the TV. The ability to handle this kind of digital content, board games, literally anywhere in the house will be a nice online family feature for Nintendo that isn't really possible on X360. By the time it might be possible on the X720, Nintendo will again have the base / economic advantages over its rival.
The Cherry on Top: Hidden Wii U Potential
In addition to the four main dangers above, Wii U has the potential to be dangerous in a couple other ways, that while individually aren't too worrisome, together amount to many criteria to try to blunt.
Japan: It is no secret that Japan likes playing games on portable systems. With a second portable screen, and more power than PS3, the Wii U should in theory be able to support DS like two-screened games with more power than any other video game hardware ever released. DS is easily the most popular video game hardware that has ever been released in Japan, with a userbase three times larger than Wii. The Wii U still can't do what 3DS can do, because it isn't in 3D, and the screens aren't next to each other. Nonetheless, the semi-portable aspects of Wii U, give it, theoretically, the ability to merge portions of the Wii, PS3, DS, and PSP lineups on to one machine in Japan. That means the system could potentially be much more successful than Wii in Japan. If Japanese support and Western support come together strongly with strong Nintendo support, you're looking at a machine that will over the long term obliterate Wii sales if its released at under $400.
Portable Console Game Demos: With the new controller able to communicate with Wii U, the question is whether the controllers can communicate with each other. Nintendo has said they only plan to have one of the special controllers sold per system. Since the controller isn't fully portable, it likely has some kind of locking mechanism to stay 'virtually tethered' to one Wii U. Nonetheless, the controller isn't physically attached, so I don't see why Nintendo couldn't design the new controller with some internal memmory so that when I go to my buddy's house or to Game Stop I can download trailers, or demos, or share a list of what I've been playing. Being able to interact with any Wii U, even if not fully, could allow players to see what their friends are playing, and even demo the games, but still force them to buy the titles due to the locking mechanism that prevents the controller from being a full portable device. Being able to take demos with you, at least around the house, means the Wii U will have an innate advantage in spreading what games are good via 'word of mouth', closer to the model seen with games like Angry Birds then say, Demon's Souls, which was an internet-based spread primarily. In 2006-2008, part of the reason Wii exploded in December was because Americans shared it with loved ones on Thanksgiving - the Wii U controller is conducive for a similar spread which could make it mainstream very quickly compared to X360 / PS3 by fostering powerful word of mouth.
User Level / Game Design: Wii U's screen can not only detect its own motion and stream games from the TV, but utilize touch and drawing mechanisms. Given the horsepower of Wii U, there is little reason to believe Nintendo or third parties won't include advanced level design and editing features into their games. Imagine being able to design, trade, or even sell levels you've designed in Mario Kart using the touch screen and buttons. In theory, you could add features to your Miis, change the height or girth of Mario to make a difficult long jump a little easier, or have a second player add or erase enemies while you played. Hell, why stop there, it could even be possible to have a player using the new controller design much of a given level, one half screen at a time, while the second player rushes left to right to complete it. The horse power should be there for this kind of experimentation. With strong enough tools and the correct vision, Nintendo could even have its users try to design basic games and sell them as cheap digital titles. Assymetrical game play and drawing go together very well, the question is whether or not Nintendo / third parties will utilize it correctly to prevent Wii from looking like nothing more than a clocked-up Wii.
Apps and Projecting Innovation: The idea of assymetry does not neccessarily stop with game play. If you drew 4-4 time signature and g-clef on the controller screen, along with various notes, would it really be impossible to have your buddy design a song for his girlfriend, or for your game's music while you play? That specific mechanism might not work, but drawing several combinations of notes, i.e. music, ahead of time, and entering a symbol on the controller screen to upload them into the game, with each triggering AI cues or 'in game events' certainly seems possible. There are probably dozens of similar little game enhancements that are possible with assymetrical control. Some could be sold as 'game services' of fun standalone applications on an online store, others could be packaged with games - but the potential exists for a lot of very interesting applications to enhance / change game play. Most importantly, none of these mechanisms are possible on X360 or PS3 - and so even if they are copied eventually, Nintendo has a window where these innovations are completely unique.
All of this of course, will depend on what games Nintendo and third parties release for the Wii U at launch, and how well it sells initially. After thinking about it though, and assuming the device sells somewhat well from the Wii-branding alone, there is far more potential locked just under the surface not only for game play but to really damage Sony and Microsoft than meets the eye.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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