Previewing the 3DS: Speculation on Launch Window, Price and More - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 10 September 2010 / 10,209 Views
Previewing the 3DS: What Nintendo Still has to Reveal
E3 2010 had a lot of games from a lot of companies. We learned a lot. For 3DS much was revealed, but we have much to learn. With Nintendo rumored to be revealing 3DS launch details on September 29, 2010 in Japan, I have speculated on five topics regarding the 3DS launch that we should be learning about real soon, since they were not revealed at E3. At the latest, information should leak out by October 28, when Nintendo and other publishers announce financial results for the half year ending September 2010. To be clear, the following paragraphs are speculation on my part based on what we know, and what we think we know about 3DS - I don't have any inside sources for this information.
Launch Window
The Nintendo DS was, and remains one of the fastest selling consumer electronics devices in the history of the world. Since launch, the price of the device is virtually unchanged – with Nintendo actually increasing the price by launching marginally improved models with mostly aesthetic changes. Nonetheless, with seven games over 10 million units worldwide, three model introductions after the original DS Phat (DS Lite, DSi and arguably DSi XL) and price cuts worldwide in 2010, Nintendo is just about out of tricks that can keep pushing huge numbers of DS systems.
Not surprisingly, Nintendo has said that it expects to ship 30m DS and 3DS systems – combined - worldwide by the end of March 2011. Alongside those 30m units, Nintendo expects game shipments for DS and 3DS to reach 150m units. In the year to March 2010, Nintendo had shipped 27m DS systems, and over 151m games. Given that DS is in a steady deterioration for both hardware and software, it is quite likely that even with the price cut Nintendo expects to ship at least 3m 3DS systems – and perhaps as many as 6m. Presumably one to three games would be shipped per 3DS. Three games in addition to a system is normally quite a bit of cash to spend for launch, but Nintendo includes bundled software in its totals. Wii and DSi include some software and are very successful devices, so it is likely that some type of game or application will be included with 3DS – which is why the initial attach rate could reach as high three games per unit.
I have previously argued that the DS, particularly for software – peaked at different times in each world region. In March I wrote “The DS software market did shrink in the Americas in 2009, but the region finally became the biggest consumer of DS games. In 2005-2006, Japan had been the biggest DS software market. During 2007-2008, ‘Others’ was the largest DS software market. In 2009, there was a correction of sorts – as the size of the DS software market in the Americas became 2.5 times larger than the Japanese market – which is exactly in line with the population of the USA & Canada relative to Japan (335m USA & Can : 127m Japan). DS software should shrink in 2010 by a small amount in the Americas, but the market will remain huge. What is interesting about DS in the Americas is that it never really caught on with the same fervor as elsewhere. The DS software peak of ~47m in Japan never translated to a 100m-120m software peak in the Americas as you would expect based on population. Nonetheless, the less volatile software pattern in the Americas - a detriment at the start of the DS lifespan - now looks like a blessing.” This is still true - European DS software grew tremendously in 2006-2008, but then shrank very quickly from 2008 to 2009 before stabilizing somewhat this year. The Americas DS market never exploded but remains very steady - so it could be the region that gets 3DS last.
If we work under the assumption that the DS price cuts Nintendo has introduced in 2010 lead to a big Christmas, DS can probably reach 23m – 26m worldwide in the fiscal year. When then will 3DS launch? Without knowing the price (more on that below) and launch games (this too), I see several options:
Option A: 3DS launches in Japan in late November 2010, and in early March 2011 in Others and the Americas. The price is something like 23,000 Yen in Japan and $250 in the USA – cheap enough to sell without killing off the DS to customers on a budget. The 3DS price includes a game. By waiting until after Christmas 2010 in the West, DS shipments reach something like 23m-24m on the strength of Pokemon Black / White in September 2010 (Japan) / Spring 2011 (West) and a final 10m December quarter. With a strong slate of games for Japan, and lots of hype in the West, the 3DS sells something like 2m in the West and 4m in Japan. This is probably the least likely scenario – as even DS at its peak barely sold 4m in a six month period in Japan.
Option B: Nintendo decides it can only ship 24m DS systems because of how slow the Others market has become... even with the recent American price cut. 3DS arrives in Others and Japan in early December 2010, with an Americas launch timed for March in order to ride out a final 3m December in the USA. Nintendo ships 2.5m 3DS systems in Others, 2m in Japan, and 0.5m 3DS in the Americas for the fiscal year.
Option C: Nintendo launches the 3DS worldwide in March 2011, and lowers its fiscal year projection for portable hardware, as DS shipments reach 24m-26m and 3DS shipments reach 2m for the fiscal year.
Option D: Nintendo somehow launches the 3DS worldwide in November 2010. Shipments reach six million for 3DS, two million per region over the five remaining months of the fiscal year, and DS reaches 23m – 24m on the strength of one last big Christmas.
Option E: 3DS launches worldwide in February 2011, and Nintendo ships 4m for the fiscal year as the price is lower than anticipated. DS meanwhile reaches 26m as retailers cut the DS price again in February 2011, to $100 - $130 in the USA (and those equivalents worldwide) to clear out stock and prepare for 3DS.
Even with the 3DS likely to be a big hit, it doesn’t look like it will be available worldwide in 2011, and I have difficulty seeing DS get to more than 25m for the fiscal year. To me, option B is probably the most likely option, though option C and option E are possibilities. Option D would probably kill the DS a bit early – but there is a slight chance it could happen.
Non-Gaming and Supplementary Gaming Features
During E3, Nintendo said that 3D video chat was something that could work on 3DS. Nintendo also wants to let users watch 3D movies on their 3DS system. Whether these features are ready for launch or not is an open question. But just thinking about the 3DS and its functionality, it seems like the following could and should be doable on the system.
3D Mapping: Why not work with Google or someone else to map cities, buildings, or even games three dimensionally?
3D Movies: The UMD side of the PSP business was a bit of a disaster – so I expect this to be done digitally and probably at launch. I wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix only agreed to put its service on Wii in exchange for getting access to the 3DS at launch. Imagine if Netflix provided exclusive 3D Movies for the service – the techies would go nuts.
3DS Game Demos: On the Nintendo Channel, users can download free DS demos. Nintendo could probably expand this service to 3DS Demos on the Nintendo Channel. That said Nintendo might wait until the “Zii” to offer portable demos on a console for its new portable.
3DS Store: Ideally this would have five components for downloads: Virtual Console, Applications / Channels, Indie games, Movies, and a 3DS Nintendo Channel. Purchasable content, as with Wii, should probably never reach more than 30% of the cost of a boxed new game given the limitations in space 3DS may have (those 3D movies will presumably take up alot of space...).
3DS Virtual Console: Some old Nintendo games are set to be remade in 3D for the 3DS. Nonetheless, allowing users to download old GB, GBC, Game Gear and GBA games for a couple of dollars would be a pretty easy way for Nintendo to boost its bottom line. Nintendo definitely loves money – I’d expect something like this at launch.
3DS Applications / Channels: Services like mapping, weather (see width, height, depth of a storm on a 3D map?), browsers, photograph editing, alarm clocks, video chat, etc could be provided through channels over an online store. Sports apps could work well too – the 3D trajectory of a pitch in baseball, the football spiraling towards user watching from the end zone, and so on.
3DS Pictures: Let users take pictures and share them over the internet or by SD Card in 3D.
3DS Ware: Like WiiWare, but in 3D. More flexible pricing than Wii and DSi downloadable games would go a long way to making the service more attractive to indie developers.
3DS Nintendo Channel: Let users see what games are good from launch by rating them. Wii owners had to wait until 2008 for this feature. Since portables are taken all over the world, it will be much easier for word of mouth to spread about good titles if two people sitting at an airport with their 3DS can share “favorite games” based on rating or playtime without even seeing each other.
Some of these features will probably never happen, but I don’t think I’m too off base on any of them – just about all of them seem possible, it’s just a matter of implementation and what Nintendo wants to do.
Pricing
Satoru Iwata has hinted that 3DS game development costs could approach Wii game development costs. 3DS also doesn’t look that much below Wii graphically. For a portable, that is a fair bit of power – and so 3DS retail games could easily cost $40 instead of $35. Presumably the cost of making a Wii game is even less than it was in 2006, but since portable software pricing is facing pressure from cheap phone games there is some risk in selling retail software higher than $35. Nintendo probably can make the economics work by being (at least somewhat) generous with its royalty fees so that publishers get a lot of the game cost back as a “thank you” for spending more on a portable game. One of the reasons the DS became such a monster in terms of user base and software sales is because of the software economics. With a base of even 10 million users, selling 100,000 games – which is often cited as the profitability threshold for DS, involves reaching only 1% of DS users. If that threshold of profitability is far higher on 3DS, fewer publishers will be successful on 3DS unless the user base growth is even faster than DS – a tall task - this is why I think price and / or royalty structure is set to improve for third parties.
3DS hardware will cost more than DS hardware at launch. That much is a given. In a couple days, DS will sell for $130, $150, and $170 in the USA, down from $130, $170 and $190. Assuming there is just one 3DS model at launch, the system should cost 25-50% more than DS. My guess is it will sell for $229 without a game, or $250 with a game. That is more than Nintendo portables have traditionally cost, but with some of the added online and non-gaming features compared to the DS available at launch, the market will probably accept a launch price up to $250, at least initially. Pricing in Europe and Japan will probably be similar, although with the Yen so strong against the Dollar, British Pound and Euro Nintendo may have to charge more in the West than in Japan to attain healthy margins on 3DS.
Software
At E3 2010, Nintendo issued a press release stating over 70 games were in development for the 3DS from third parties and Nintendo’s internal studios. The question is how many will be available in the launch window(s), for each region. For Wii, Nintendo released Wii Sports, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, Wii Play, WarioWare, Super Paper Mario, Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Battalion Wars II, Mario Party 8 and Fire Emblem within a year of launch in the Americas. That is ten titles within a year of launch.
The announced Nintendo games for 3DS – Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus: Uprising, Mario Kart, Nintendogs + Cats, Paper Mario, PilotWings Resort, Star Fox 64 3D, and Steel Diver don’t have specific release dates. Nintendo included them in its June 2010 supplemental earnings sheet which previews sales results for future quarters in the fiscal year – but did not specify which games would come when. Of the nine non-bundled Wii games from Nintendo to launch by November 2007, four came by March 2007, the end of the first fiscal year when Wii could be purchased. I’m expecting 3DS to see a similar output – with perhaps all eight titles that have been announced launching by the end of 2011.
At E3 2010, the Kid Icarus: Uprising and PilotWings Resort demos both played like they were pretty far along on the 3DS, and so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see those two games and a couple of others launch in the March 2011 fiscal year.
If the 70+ 3DS titles announced at E3 2010 were all to arrive by the end of 2011 the 3DS would likely have a very strong launch year given how many potential million sellers would be out in that time frame. See for yourself -
Images: Gamer Investments
Going by these announced titles, there are potentially 15-25 3DS games on the list above that could top 1 million units near the 3DS launch.
3DS Genre Creation & Genre Enhancement
If you look at the history of the video game industry, systems that really take off are usually those that have constant genre creation or enhancement, either due to unique hardware features or new ways of harnessing computational power. Wii has benefited from advances or entirely new inventions within the sports, dance, fitness, puzzle / indie, and platformer genres for instance, while DS has benefited from brain games, puzzle, strategy and simulation game play improvements / inventions. The open question is what game genres benefit from the features of the 3DS.
We won’t know for sure until the device launches, but I have some guesses as to what genres will benefit and what genres will not benefit. With “depth” to aid perception some sports, action, platforming and shooting games should benefit. Fighting, Strategy games and puzzle games could benefit too – a third plane means a game like Fire Emblem or Smash Bros. could have enemies come toward you from another direction, adding to the strategy of when to evade or counter attack. Some genres that probably won’t benefit are racing, rpgs, and really anything with a “forced perspective” such as boxing titles or on rail shooters. Obviously certain things that only work on Wii, like Wii Fit and Just Dance still aren’t really functional on 3DS, although with the cameras there could be some Eye Toy or augmented-reality like functionality eventually.
Overall though, the 3DS looks like it can continue the genre innovation seen on Wii and DS although it isn't easy to imagine "new genres" with the features of the 3DS. For 3DS to really take off though, there will need to be big time genre innovation / genre invention within six months to two years of launch. So keep an eye out on what third party games are set to launch at the outset, as those are likely the titles Nintendo and publishers expect to define advances in old genres and in entirely new genres.
Conclusions
Following the success of the DS software market, 3DS was probably set to get more support than the DS had initially, almost regardless of what new features the new system would have. However, given the “3D without glasses” selling point and the unique side features, the 3DS is likely to receive waves of ongoing support as third parties and Nintendo discover what will work on the new system with time.
Furthermore, the DS software market is over 700 million games shipped to date – roughly three times larger than the PSP market. DS software may still top 1 billion units lifetime before it stops selling. Sony has not confirmed that PSP2 even exists – effectively allowing 3DS to build up a base of some note before Sony returns for the next round. This, in addition to the much stronger DS attach rate (5.5 vs. just over 4 games per user on PSP) is likely the reason for third party support initially. Systems tend to be announced six months to two years before they release – and so the fact is that PSP2 simply isn’t arriving until at least mid 2011. That means some customers who had PSP will go to 3DS. Historically, launching ahead of the competition has been a huge advantage as publishers like to attack a large base. Given that PSP2 will likely have far higher development costs then 3DS, and a smaller base, beginning from a later time frame 3DS should have tremendous economic advantages over its principal rival. The odds are that cell phones and smart phone software markets will continue to grow as well – but the 3DS will be able to ape and improve on some phone features while still remaining principally a game player. With a better store for downloading games, the threat of cheap phone games can be blunted too. By offering low-end games for a couple dollars, and the high end titles publishers that publishers like Electronic Arts and Square-Enix produce at say, $40 instead of $35, 3DS should serve most developer and publisher needs quite well by building both the download market and potentially improving the margins on retail games. For once, everyone might be happy.
Hopefully we’ll find out more on September 29, 2010.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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Hmmm...I might dip into the handheld market to get this...I'm already getting a windows phone 7, but this might be my other handheld.
if nintendoa nnonce gba and vc for 3ds nothing would stop this not even any new psp or iphone XD
I just realized a Punch Out! game could be GLORIOUS on the 3DS.
The 3DS looks really promicing. Very good read by the way,
@wiilicious, ill bet that, if not at launch, the 3DS will have a virtual console feature eventually. it only makes sense considering the success of the wii virtual console. i do agree though, i was disappointed with the fact that the DSi didnt have it, but im not to bummed.
OT: fantastic article. i see the 3DS being priced $220-$250, and that comes with a game. i see games at $40-$45. i hope for a launch after Christmas when i have the money but i guess we'll see...
i also kinda think we haven't seen the actual 3DS. i think we only saw a prototype and Nintendo will reveal the final version before the end of the year. hopefully with a second analog stick
Its in development but wasn't listed on the supplementary sheet.
Yeah I noticed that too MasterZack.
Why is not TLoZ: Ocarina of Time in the list?? :S
"3DS Virtual Console: Some old Nintendo games are set to be remade in 3D for the 3DS. Nonetheless, allowing users to download old GB, GBC, Game Gear and GBA games for a couple of dollars would be a pretty easy way for Nintendo to boost its bottom line. Nintendo definitely loves money – I’d expect something like this at launch. "
I have serious doubt about this feature...I bought a Dsi at lauch hoping for this feature and a year and a half after it still not there. They also nearly stop doing new realse on the Wii VC. I end up giving my Dsi to my niece and buying a Ds lite to play GBA games.
This is a great article! Fabulous job!
@silver-tiger: That's not the launch line-up, those are only announced games that don't even have a solid name for the most part. I'd say that if 20% of those games are available at launch it would be very impressive.
Some of those games won't even see the light for a few years from now, some even may never be released.
$250 at launch seems about right taking into account inflation, how much it offers and how many times Nintendo "suffered" already for releasing hardware way too cheap.
Good analysis.
The 3DS would be a steal at $200, so I'd think it would be safe to think it is $50 higher than the most expensive previous DS (DSi XL at $169.99). Due to the DS's great success, I can see the price limiting 3DS HW sales somewhat in order to delay the DS decline and fight guaranteed supply issues.
This handheld is primed to literally do it all if done right, so I hope no one drops the ball. I've never seen a launch so fit to succeed before.
@ TheSource, OH I see what you meant. Then I read that wrong ._.'
@Silver-Tiger then that new beast gadget could cost about $750.
3DS will be the best new HW of 2011!
Probably the srongest lineup i've seen for a console at launch. Really frightning!
The 3rd party support is amazing.
Even with MGS5, Kingdom Hearts 3, and Mass Effect 3; Nintendo just needs New Super Mario 3DS alone, and it will effectively double to triple the success of those three games combined.
I am hoping the launch of the 3DS gets here in time for Christmas. As is fairly obvious, this is not just another videogame system, this is groundbreaking technology that lots and lots of people are going to want to get ahold of as soon as possible. The original DS didn't seem to be a full package, it launched with a weak line-up of ubiware/shovelware, and a somewhat bulky and unpleasant to look at casing. While having the touchscreen and the momentum of Nintendo's handheld fanbase backing it. The platform made up for the shortcomings with the release of very strong software later (becoming the major platform for RPGs with the big three -Dragon Quest, Pokemon, and Final Fantasy- having a strong representation), the DS Lite model, and the first real release of casual games (Brain Age/Sudoku) on a major gaming system since NES or early SNES. The 3DS will launch with an improved case of all of the current benefits of the DS, and none of the disadvantages it had at launch; this on top of the fact that it sports visual display technology that is years ahead of its time.
Speaking for myself, I am looking to pick up two of them (for myself and my wife), and I would spend up to $350 each without any need of consideration, probably $400 each. At the 250-300, I might pick up a couple additional units as Christmas gifts, at ~200 or less, I would probably try to get as many as possible as Christmas gifts. My current expectation is $279.99 with games at $44.99.
Great article.
The 3DS is having an aesome launch linuep. Just look at all the games!
@CChaos:
Or mabye tehy actually don't have an answer? I mean, to do beat the 3DS at this point, hey need a portable PS3 with 3D projector built in, 24h battery time, and MGS5, Kindogm Hearts 3 and Mass Effect 3 launch at the same time. Otherwise they woN't stand a chance against the 3DS. I have always been more a PSP than a DS fan, it just didn't have the games I wanted to play, but even I see that Sony will have a very hard time beating that.
Great article & those are all very valid points. I think option 1 is the best option, but I dunno about the price, initially I thought 200-225, but I didnot consider the fact that nintendo could give a game with the 3DS... I still doubt the price would be $250, but who knows time will tell...
Other interesting fact is the amount of potential million sellers, 15 in its first year?... Beast,...
It isn't an error - I was saying four games arrived in the fiscal year, but in "real time" Nintendo managed to get out a ton of games for Wii within one year of Nov 2006 - so similar output on 3DS is possible.
@elmerion
I'm not sure they really have anything for it. Nintendo has been a step ahead of them for quite some time and, except for the mention of that prototype with the touch sensitive pad on the back (I think it was), they've been pretty mum on the subject. I mean, usually if they have an idea, they're pretty quick to say, "Oh, yeah, that's good, but what we've got will blow you away." Hasn't really been anything like that.
Who knows, maybe they'll have a PSP 4000 coming down the pipe.
In the software section, you made an error: "Of the nine Wii games from Nintendo to launch by November 2007, four came by March 2007, the end of the first fiscal year when Wii could be purchased." It should be November 2006 instead of 2007. Nevertheless, a VERY good read and all the information you have does seem like it may hold true to whatever Nintendo is planning. And you hit the nail on the head with many valid points in the software and also how Nintendo may lay out its cards :-)
The stage is set for one of the most succesful launches in the history of videogames, and Sony hasnt revealed anything yet to face it
