Pachter: Sales Decline Won't Stop Until the Big 3 Release New Consoles - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 08 October 2012 / 10,507 Views
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that the big software games this holiday season and the launch of the Wii U won't be enough to undo the decline in video games sales experienced so far in 2012. Video game sales have dropped by double digits during the first eight months of 2012 when compared to the same time frame in 2011.
"We expect October - December to be relatively flat, and expect a return to negative territory again next year, at least until the launch of a next-generation console from Microsoft or Sony," said Pachter. "A new console cycle is likely to reverse the negative sales trends of the last several years, with next-generation consoles expected from each of the three manufacturers over the next 18 months.
"Nintendo will launch the Wii U on November 18, and, while neither Sony nor Microsoft has yet announced new hardware, we expect a PS4 no later than November 2013, and a next Xbox no later than March 2014," Pachter continued.
"Competition from social and mobile games hurt packaged goods sales over the last three years, but should serve to expand the market for console games over the long run, although it appears that the addressable market for handheld games will continue to erode," Pachter added.
"We expect the publishers to address the "problem" of free online multiplayer with evolving business models, adding increased opportunities to purchase virtual items, creating subscription-only serialized content, and adding premium subscription layers to the free offerings currently provided."
Pachter feels that the next generation will take off faster than in any other previous generation, even if there is only a "modest improvement" over the current generation. "We believe that the publishers plan an unprecedented number of new games for launch in the first two years of the next generation, providing relief from the gamer fatigue we've seen over the last three years," he said.
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I just want to punch Pachter in the face.
I would think pachters own mother would feel the same as you.
I cannot believe people listen to him... no shit patcher.
It must be MAGIC that gives him a paycheck. I can't see he deserves one for just talking random BULL about everything. He keeps on talking so he must be right at least a few times.
@stephenking
He has a daily podcast where he predicts which day of the week it is, sometimes he gets it right on the money.
There's no downturn in HD SW sales, 2011 was the best ever and 2012 looks equal, not need to rush next-gen, end of 2013 seems good to me.
and wht else is new. i had no idea patcher' a prophet lol
Patcher is the king. I agree with his analysis, especially that next gen will take off much faster than usual and that there will be much more AAA games early on than there were in previous gens.
and to me Halo 4 seems next-gen from screens I've seen (at least next-gen for a halo game ^^)
Michael Pachter makes no sense. This holiday season is packed with gaming glory that is going to sell through the roof (on all consoles). Even the Vita is going to see sales bump due to Assassin's Creed 3 - Liberation and Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale cross-buy. Then you have AC-3, Blops-2, Halo-4, and bunch of other likely million+ sellers that already started coming out in October and will continue to come out into mid December. The Wii U console launch will also suck a lot of consumer dollars into the gaming sector with hardware, games, peripherals all getting surges. Rolling into Q1 2013, some key games people been waiting for will be coming out like MGR, Bioshock Infinite, and plenty more. I think summer might be a little slow as it normally is but then will come Holiday 2013 and that might have 1 or 2 new consoles launching as well. All of this is on top of the growth trends for gaming on other mobile devices like iOS and Android machines. Lastly, PC gaming has been on the rise as well, not just due to free-to-play model but because of easy distribution models like Steam and even Origin. The only thing in decline are the facebook games and MMOs.
I'm pretty sure the guy just chats around the clock and every now and again people pick out 1 or 2 sentences that sorta made sense and put them out as a patcher prediction, I avoid any sites normally that directly just fuel his ego by upping his junk.
"We expect the publishers to address the "problem" of free online multiplayer with evolving business models, adding increased opportunities to purchase virtual items, creating subscription-only serialized content, and adding premium subscription layers to the free offerings currently provided." - Hopefully NOT!
I believe that both Sony and Microsoft are wanting to have AT LEAST 2-3 major/blockbuster franchises having new installments within the first 6 months to a year after the launch of new hardware.
The PS4 would do incredibly well with Uncharted 4 and Gran Turismo 6 launching within 6 months of each other in the launch year as well. Possibly even having one of them as a launch title, if not both.
Xbox 720 would see a similar impact with new Halo and Gears of War titles in the launch year.
Which ever one launches first can make a major impact already by having the blockbuster third party titles releasing on their platform (I'm specifically talking about the war between Microsoft and Sony) Either one can become THE "base console" for Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Grand Theft Auto.
