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10 Week Countdown 2008 Results. - VGChartz

10 Week Countdown 2008 Results. - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 23 October 2009 / 2,810 Views

First a little background on what this is about for those unfamiliar. (Here is the thread for a more in-depth explanation) Last year I hosted a contest open to anyone willing to predict what the weekly sales would look like for the 3 home consoles at the business end of the year, possibly due to the work involved in predicting so many things at once, there were only 8 participants (including myself) but it was an interesting contest none-the-less. The task was to predict all 10 weeks hardware sales (from 26th October to 3rd January) with a prediction deadline being before any of the sales results were posted, so while most of us were accurate on the early weeks, predicting what each consoles sales will be 10 weeks in advance is more challenging.
Once the sales data started rolling in, I ran a weekly scorecard based on the original VGC figures (before any adjustments) which you can view in the thread, this was based on how far away our predictions were from the VGC figures (1% = 1 point, and the lowest score wins)

Anyone wishing to go straight to this years prediction contest (open for participants until November 1st) click here. Now onto last years results:

A warning to you here, this article contains a lot of tables that are really for the benefit of last years participants (due to this being so late) For those not interested I would suggest skipping to near the end where the actual results will be, showing who beat who at what.... The results article for the 2009 contest will be shorter as much of this stuff will be posted in the thread instead of in the article.

I apologise for this being so late, particularly to those 7 of you who joined me in the contest. Hopefully I shall continue to do this each year, and will generally aim to bring out the final results shortly after the Fiscal Year results come in (around mid May) this is due to the distance some of the larger adjustments can go back in the sales history, so while the 10 weeks people predict for end either early January or late December, it is possible they will be adjusted by significant amounts for months afterwards. I figure that leaving it till after the Fiscal Year reports from the 3 companies are released should mean that any major adjustments are over... So the 2009 results will not be as late as these, but don't expect them in February.

             Predictors, Predictions and the sales themselves            


Three tables (one for each console) showing what each of us predicted for the 10 weeks as well as what the original VGC figures were and what they had been adjusted to (taken in July 2009, so may not be the same as now, but will be close), all figures are in thousands... so I (TWRoO) predicted 450k for the Wii for week 1, and the actual sales were 485,528... I was just over 35k off.

(n.b. The final 2 rows of each table were exact figures, but I have had to round them so I can shorten them and thus fit the table onto the page)

Wii week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10 Total
TWRoO 450 430 520 650 1,050 1,100 1,450 2,200 1,950 1,000 10,800
Darth... 415 410 450 515 1,470 1,050 1,300 2,500 1,700 750 10,560
Pineapple 470 450 600 610 1,550 1,150 1,320 2,320 1,900 850 11,220
Veggie 490 420 600 650 1,000 1,100 1,300 1,700 2,000 900 10,160
DMeisterJ 400 450 500 550 1,000 1,200 1,550 2,100 2,450 1,050 11,250
Zucas 400 450 500 550 1,050 1,000 1,550 2,250 1,400 650 9,800
Skeezer 450 427 575 841 863 905 1,050 2,050 1,800 1,050 10,011
BHR-3 485 495 560 650 1,350 1,400 1,500 1,910 1,000 700 10,050
                       
Original 486 527 603 785 1,365 1,179 1,479 1,838 1,536 741 10,540
Final 486 554 649 789 1,296 1,020 1,239 1,783 1,202 654 9,671

----

PS3 week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10 Total
TWRoO 180 220 280 350 520 550 700 950 750 400 4,900
Darth… 210 300 310 450 510 650 720 800 950 600 5,500
Pineapple 300 350 400 450 550 650 750 800 750 550 5,550
Veggie 200 240 300 330 500 510 600 800 900 400 4,780
DMeisterJ 270 330 350 400 570 600 700 750 850 550 5,370
Zucas 225 350 350 375 550 500 550 850 500 400 4,650
Skeezer 200 288 309 452 500 590 710 825 925 520 5,319
BHR-3 180 230 250 350 560 500 700 1,000 615 320 4,705
                     
Original 192 209 210 240 403 350 416 524 467 261 3,272
Final 194 192 208 237 389 359 430 517 475 331 3,332

----

X360 week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10 Total
TWRoO 200 300 300 300 550 500 600 850 800 350 4,750
Darth… 270 300 350 350 480 500 600 650 700 300 4,500
Pineapple 250 310 370 430 480 540 600 720 660 560 4,920
Veggie 200 230 300 300 480 500 650 700 800 300 4,460
DMeisterJ 250 300 330 350 520 570 620 690 780 240 4,650
Zucas 200 350 300 350 500 450 550 800 500 300 4,300
Skeezer 210 220 300 425 450 520 670 727 800 400 4,722
BHR-3 175 190 280 365 555 480 600 700 550 260 4,155
                       
Original 198 255 280 436 800 646 740 932 785 342 5,414
Final 214 272 307 405 725 584 682 879 736 378 5,182

----

Calculating the scores is then done by using the difference between the prediction and the sales, and dividing it by the sales then multiply by 100 to get the percentage error.... so using me as an example again... week 1 for the Wii I predicted 450k, the final sales figure is 485,528.
(485,528 - 450,000) / 485,528 * 100 = 7.485% error.... that is rounded to 7% and I got 7 points for that week (remember less points is better)

And as such, here is what the results were for the final VGC sales figure comparison for each console.

              Tablulated weekly points             

----

Wii week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10  Total
TWRoO 7 22 20 18 19 8 17 23 62 53 249
Darth... 15 26 31 35 13 3 5 40 41 15 224
Pineapple
3 19 8 23 20 13 7 30 58 30 211
Veggie 1 24 8 18 23 8 5 5 66 38 196
DMeisterJ 18 19 23 30 23 18 25 18 104 61 339
Zucas 18 19 23 30 19 2 25 26 16 1 179
Skeezer 7 23 11 7 33 11 15 15 50 61 233
BHR-3 0 11 14 18 4 37 21 7 17 7 136

----

PS3
week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10  Total
TWRoO 7 14 35 48 34 53 63 84 58 21 417
Darth... 8 56 49 90 31 81 67 55 100 81 618
Pineapple 55 82 93 90 42 81 74 55 58 66 696
Veggie 3 25 45 39 29 42 39 55 90 21 388
DMeisterJ 39 72 69 69 47 67 63 45 79 66 616
Zucas 16 82 69 58 42 39 28 64 5 21 424
Skeezer 3 50 49 91 29 64 65 59 95 57 562
BHR-3 7 20 20 48 44 39 63 93 30 3 367

----

X360 week1 week2 week3 week4 week5 week6 week7 week8 week9 week10  Total
TWRoO 6 10 2 26 24 14 12 3 9 7 113
Darth… 26 10 14 14 34 14 12 26 5 21 176
Pineapple 17 14 20 6 34 8 12 18 10 48 187
Veggie 6 15 2 26 34 14 5 20 9 21 152
DMeisterJ 17 10 7 14 28 2 9 22 6 37 152
Zucas 6 29 2 14 31 23 19 9 32 21 186
Skeezer 2 19 2 5 38 11 2 17 9 6 111
BHR-3 18 30 9 10 23 18 12 20 25 31 196

----

Now onto the rankings:

              Rankings, winners and losers             

 

Wii points
ps3 points

X360 points
BHR-3 136
BHR-3 367
Skeezer 111
Zucas 179
Veggie 388
TWRoO 113
Veggie 196
TWRoO 417
Veggie 152
Pineapple
211
Zucas 424
DMeisterJ 152
DarthDevidem 224
Skeezer 562
DarthDevidem 176
Skeezer 233
DMeisterJ 616
Zucas 186
TWRoO 249
DarthDevidem 618
Pineapple
187
DMeisterJ 339
Pineapple
696
BHR-3 196

As you can see, BHR-3 perfomed the best in both Wii and PS3 predictions, but came last for the X360... overall people's performance was not too bad for Wii and X360, but everyone overestimated the PS3 by a lot, which is why even the best racked up a massive 367 points... and pineapple (Oyvoyvoyv) was almost 700 points.... with PS3 representing such a huge portion of everyones innaccuracy, the PS3 ranking list was the main determining factor for the final ranks, which are as such:

Finals wii ps3 X360 total
BHR-3 136 367 196 699
Veggie 196 388 152 736
TWRoO 249 417 113 779
Zucas 179 424 186 789
Skeezer 233 562 111 906
DarthDevidem 224 618 176 1018
Pineapple 211 696 187 1094
DMeisterJ 339 616 152 1107

BHR-3 wins out overall, congratulations to him.

BHR-3

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10 Comments

TWRoO (on 24 October 2009)

been through the whole article and can't find "wuu"... someone must (or mist) have edited it for me.


Cueil (on 24 October 2009)

Next year is the one I'm most excited about... all the cards are going to be on the table and the ballance of power could easily shift in any direction


nordlead (on 23 October 2009)

Wuu predictions :-P


MissingNo (on 23 October 2009)

Congratz to BHR-3. What happened on the 360 though? haha You did the best at the other 2


BHR-3 (on 23 October 2009)

AH TWRoO hitting the big time now posting this in the news area of the site rather than the forums i guess thats wat u can do now that ur contributor As you can see, BHR-3 perfomed the best in both Wuu wats a Wuu yeah those were good times i was a new member and all wen i entered i just wanted to try it out see if power would work here too and i guess it has to some extent i really had passion for console sales then idk wat happen as of late though i just kinda of moved on it was just kinda of like a phase or interest i went through other problems in real life im not really fit to be on internet forums i can really handle myself sometimes i did those calculations over and over again thought i lost it to veggie after the re adjustments u shouldnt of done all this TWRoO now im really scared to join this years one to much pressure for me to do well


theprof00 (on 23 October 2009)

o man I wanna play!!!


TWRoO (on 23 October 2009)

The re-adjustments for Wii really messed me up (not for overall rank, but per console) For X360, going by the original posted VGC figures I had tied 1st place with Skeezer, but because I predicted closer for the total 10 weeks (4,750k compared to his 4,722k) I put me in 1st.... however, the final figures saw both of us increase in points, but Skeezer slightly more. For the Wii it was much worse though, by the original VGC figures I came 5th, but dropped to 7th with the adjustments :-(


Simulacrum (on 23 October 2009)

Wuu xDDD I don't see these resulst cleary, but good job.


Veggie (on 23 October 2009)

Phooey.


darthdevidem01 (on 23 October 2009)

CONGRATS BHR-3 But I will win this year! {my dog says so}