Won't there be a chip shortage for the Switch as well? I need to find the article where someone claimed the there would be limited Switch manufactured this year. I could be wrong. In any route, I don't see the Switch hitting over 20 mil this year at all. I will say about 15-16m at best.

21.5m

I don't know, it's hard to guess. But if I had to, I would say 20,906,749 Switches sold in 2022

20M.

So picking the 20.0-21.9M option.

Bonus: Zelda, what else.

I think Nintendo will still be able to pull off 20 million Switches in 2022 at most considering the shortages Nintendo has admitted to having, as all other tech companies are as well. That being said though, that'll still put the Switch in 3rd place on the all time best selling consoles list only behind the PS2 and DS.

If Nintendo can keep up the 1st party output till at least 2024, that'll allow Nintendo to still sell 20 million Switches a year (hopefully) and will allow the Switch to become the best selling console of all time. There's still the possibility that the popularity in the Switch will begin to fade by 2023, but then again, who would've thought the Switch would still be selling 20+ million units every year after 5 years. 

The cliff is finally approaching eh?

17-18 million, I guess? I'm undecided since I have no idea to determine how much of an impact the shortage is going to have.

I'll go with around 20 million.

I’ve been predicting a little bit over 20 million for a while now.
I hope they hit the milestone, but a high 19 million is possible too if things like production go slightly worse than expected, or the big games aren’t quite as good as hoped, but over 19 million would still be a decent result. I think any less than 18 million would be very disappointing.

Going safe-ish again with 20.0 - 21.9 million, though it feels weird trying to predict with all the random factors that could pop up in this climate.

Bonus: Triangle Strategy