With over 4 million shipped in its opening weekend it looks safe to say monster hunter rise will easily outsell the previous record holder just dance 3 on the wii, which sold a little over 10 million copies.

7,5 mil tops this isn't an evergreen

Oh wow Just Dance 3 is the most ever? That's kinda funny. I guess yeah the last time Nintendo had major third party support (the SNES) the market was way smaller.

Yup MH Rise is pretty much guaranteed to pass Just Dance 3. Should easily sell over 5 million in Japan alone and over 5 million elsewhere. Will probably beat Just Dance 3 by at least a couple million. Though I wonder how much Minecraft has sold on the Switch, could that be approaching 10 million?

Well, so far it's the only Nintendo Switch third party game that:

- Have AAA production value

- It's from a major game developer (Capcom)

- It's part of a VERY big and famous IP

- It was released on Switch first rather than later 

- It's from a genre with a very big crowd and selling potential (action adventure)

-  Have a worldwide appeal rather than a more local one

All stars are aligning for it to be a major seller

Yes

/thread

Yeah, third party games were a pretty big deal on the SNES, and that was probably the only Nintendo system where they were a huge deal.  Wikipedia has Street Fighter 2: The World Warrior at 6.3m sales on SNES, while the best selling first party game was Super Mario All Stars at 10.6m.  So, the top third party game sold about 60% of the top first party game.  (Not counting Mario World since it was a day 1 pack-in.)  For a third party game to do that well on the Switch it would have to sell about 60% of what Mario Kart 8 or Animal Crossing will sell lifetime, which will probably be about 50m or so (which means 30m for the third party game). 

Basically, SF2 was like the Call of Duty of the 16-bit era.  I don't think Switch is going to get any third party exclusives as big as Call of Duty, but I think it is likely MH World will surpass the 10m that Just Dance 3 sold.

Considering world is at over 16.8 million as of the December 2020 this seems like an awful prediction. Especially with the switch being so much more popular than the ps4 in Japan. I'm not expecting this to sell as much as world but 7.5 seems way to low, 10 is the floor for this one. 

Third party published - there’s a chance.
Third party developed - zero chance.

I don't think it will unless the West really embraces the portability side of MH (which it did not previously do) and if Nintendo really pushes the game until the holidays. It definitely is a quality title, but I think most Western gamers who bought World will view that game as the "superior" version, so I cannot see it doing as well. It will be interesting to see regardless.

World released on three platforms so far (who knows, they may have an upgraded version in the works for PS5/Series X/PC). If you averaged let's say 17.5 million MH world sales (it's been some months since 12/20) that's 5.83 million MH world sold per system on average. So if MH Rise sold 7.5 million on Switch then it would have sold considerably more per console released on (1) than MH World did (the PC sales being TBD for now since Rise hasn't released there yet). So 7.5 million on Switch alone is kind of crazy!