Ok, so with Sword/Shield officially announced, it's time to discuss it's potential sales. Now, we all know that no title since the original two generations on the Game Boy has reached the 20m mark, but Sword/Shield are in an interesting point, one no game has been since Diamond/Pearl. It's the first home console (ignore Colisseum/XD/the Switch is a hybrid arguments, you know what I mean), the Switch is selling like hotcakes and will probably do Wii numbers, the Pokemon fanbase has been waiting a lot for it, and the casual market has been drenched in Pokemon goodness since Pokemon Go and spinoffs Let's Go E/P came out. It would be too wild to assume that it will reach the 30m of the original games (let's face it no other game in the series probably will) but 20m seems like a much more manageable goal, especially when games on the Switch like Zelda BotW and Mario odyssey seem to be on their way to reach them.

So the question is simple: What is going to sell better, Pokemon Sword/Shield or Pokemon Gold/Silver?

Why compare it with GS instead of just saying "how much is Sw/Sh going to sell?" Because I think G/S is the most realistic goal it can achieve. If it beats R/B/G, I will have a crow avatar for a whole year.

In this thread I will compare the total and weekly sales of Shield/Sword with the previous games. A couple of things to point out:

-I won't compare remakes, that will get its own thread once it's relevant.

-Likewise, no 3rd version.

-I'm not counting the digital re-release for this comparison, this will only count the original release.

-The database only has sales data from Diamond/Pearl onwards, so unless I can find data about G/S or R/B/G, I won't add them.

We can also make this count a bit funnier and bet where is Sword/Shield going to be in the selling ranking. Just for a reminder:

   1º. Pokémon Red / Green / Blue Version 31.37 million (according to VGChartz)

   2º. Pokémon Gold/Silver Version 23.10 million (according to VGChartz)

   3º. Pokémon Diamond/Pearl Version 17.67 million (according to Nintendo JP)

   4º. Pokémon X/Y Version 16.37 million (according to Nintendo JP)*

   5º. Pokemon Sun/Moon Version 16.14 million (according to Nintendo JP)*

   6º. Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire Version 15.85 million (according to VGChartz)

   7º. Pokémon Black/White Version 15.64 million (according to Nintendo JP)

*Maybe this two change positions at some point in time.

You can bet which position will Sword/Shield reach on the ranking, it's been a while since we had a general betting thread. If you wish to do so, please do it by saying the position on the ranking (first, second, third, and so on), because some of the Pokemon games are still selling and that can give problems later down the line.

Reserved for the bets.

It's hard to tell. I think it should beat diamond/pearl. The series seems to be getting a lot more exposure in recent years with Pokemon go and the detective pikachu movie, that along with the big success of the switch should help give the series a boost over the 3ds era at least.

It's going to be huge; but 23 million might be too much. Passing Diamond/Pearl is possible though

If gen 4 remakes are next year, it will only past D/P. If there is no new PKMN game next year, it will surpass G/S

100% agree with u, the problem with pkmn is that they release a new game every year... still thinking sun moon couldve reached 20M without ultra version. I will go for something like 17-18M LT

If the isn't a release next year I'll say SW/SH it'll be close though, I still see it crossing the 20m barrier regardless.

I voted for it to be 4th, beating X/Y. However, I do think it's possible that it could beat Diamond/Pearl.

From the trailer, Sword/Shield look like very conventional Pokémon games; there doesn't seem to be any reason that they would capture millions of new users who aren't already part of the fanbase. If Diamond/Pearl could only manage 1.3 million more sales than X/Y on a console that sold 78M+ more units, then it just doesn't seem realistic to expect Sword/Shield to sell 6.5 million more than X/Y, regardless of how much Switch sells.

Also, Ruby/Sapphire sold 16.22 million.

Considering that PLG made it to 10M already I think it's actually possible to outsell Gold/Silver, though I expect third spot, between Gold/Silver and Diamond/Pearl

Less than Gold/Silver but more than Diamond/Pearl.