Is Valve doomed?
Well, I can safely assume that everybody on the forums already saw the news about how Xbox and Xbox Live will become a prime time player on PC gaming with Windows 10. But that creates a discussion, that I'm planning to start here: is this the beginning of the end for Valve and Steam? Let's see some reasoning (since I'm a reasonable person, of course).
First, let's go back to Windows 8. Previous Windows versions, like most operating systems had a way to get applications: you should download an installer and it would install your application. There wasn't a centralized way to get them and if you want to buy one you had to buy a disc or pay on the developer website to download a license. Linux would do it in a different way. You had a centralized source, the repository, and you would have an application that would be basically a software store. You would choose an app and the system would download and install it from the centralized repository. When mobile devices hit the scene, they used a similar approach: a centralized software store. Soon, Apple put a software store in Mac OS X too. Well, then we have Windows 8 and, for the first time, Windows had a software store where you could download free apps or buy paid ones.
In a similar timeframe, Valve surprised us all with Steam Machines. Pre-built PCs running a Linux based OS (Steam OS) and with Steam at the forefront. A lot of people questioned (and still do) the reason behind this. Allmost every single game on Steam is Windows only. And the situation gets even worse with AAA games. Why would Valve break compatibility with 95% of their games? PC gaming is always about being able to play the older games. But with a Steam Machine you would actually have less games than PS4 and X1 (newcomers) and even Wii U. Why would Valve want such a radical departure and end up having to build a new platform from scratch? Maybe they won't want their OEMs to pay for a Windows license. But let's think for a minute: how much does it cost? According to this, around US$ 60 to 80 for Windows 8 Pro. Beefy, but is surely better than end up with a machine that can't run Call of Duty, Battlefield or Fifa. 60 to 80 bucks more is what it takes to change a machine that can't run any game to a machine that can run all the blockbusters that people want. Valve reasons here are different than costs.
Valve isn't a prolific game developer, at least not anymore. Their output is far from consistent. They are mainly the owners of Steam. Everybody knows, but let's put it clear: Steam is a software that you download so you can create an account, buy and download games for your PC. But let's think about one thing. Microsoft now have a software store on Windows. It's like Steam, but for general software and some simple games: you download it so you can create an account, buy and download apps/games for your PC. Wait. You don't have to download it, it comes pre-installed. Better than that, it is displayed on your screen and shows advertising for recommended apps. Well, you don't need to create an account to, you probably used your Outlook.com account to log in to Windows. That's some big, big advantages.
That's why Steam wants to get Windows out of the equation on their machines. Microsoft is coming closer and closer of what Steam does. Microsoft knows that Steam is a cash cow. And now they can steal their market. And Valve knows it. It isn't there yet, but it only takes one step for MS to start offering full AAA games on their store. They already have the relations with publishers (thanks to Xbox). So let's see an old history lesson: Netscape Navigator. Once the most used browser in the world, it was dethroned by Internet Explorer (that was dethroned too, but that's another history). The main reason was because IE came installed in every machine, so people used it. Why bother? Netscape didn't tought it was fair. They started anti-trust lawsuits. But in the end, the lose of share and their downfall was way faster than lawyers and they went down before being able to fight.
The recent conference showed that Xbox isn't a gaming console anymore, it's a brand of gaming related services (much like PS is becoming one too). Since Windows 8, MS is trying to get the control of all PC software sales. They looked at Apple and looked at Google and saw that it was serious money. It's logical that they will extende their control to PC game sales. And that paints a grim future for Steam, that could become the Netscape of PC digital sales: outdated and crushed by an opponent that has the advantage of playing in their home turf.
So member of VGChartz, speak your mind. Will MS invade Valve's territory? Can Valve resist the competition, even with MS advantages? Is this the beginning of the end for Steam and Valve?
