Yearly Gran Turismo 5 Sales
| Year | Yearly | Change | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 5,264,164 | N/A | 5,264,164 |
| 2011 | 1,785,728 | -66.1% | 7,049,892 |
| 2012 | 831,278 | -53.4% | 7,881,170 |
Also note that GT5: Academy Edition will be bundled with the PS3 Superslim a bit. Here are a few examples. There may be more; I'm not sure.
- European Bundle - PS3 Super Slim, Gran Turismo 5, and Uncharted 3
- HMV Bundle - PS3 Super Slim, Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 3, and FIFA 13
I'm not sure how significant those bundles will be but it's probably worth mentioning.
Here's an interesting chart that shows that similar GT5 has been selling in comparison to GTAIV (X360)
As you can see, GT5 seems be almost perfectly matching GTAIV. It's kind of scary actually. GT5 is tracking above GTAIV by a very tiny margin. With GT5 nearing its second holiday and with upcoming bundles, it should expand its 'lead' by a considerable amount.
If GT5 continues to sell similar to GTA IV, then it should reach 10 million in about four years. That means around late 2014 or early 2015.
But of course GT5 won't face the same circumstances as GTA IV, considering GTAIV sold for four years in the midst of the generation. GT5 won't have the same luck because the PS4 should could release in 2013 or 2014, hindering the PS3's software sales. However, Sony may start aggressively bundling GT5, effectively countering the lower software sales due to this generation winding down. Even if the bundles don't completely counter end-of-generation fatigue, that doesn't mean it will never reach 10 million; it just means it'll take a while longer. So I would expect it to hit 10m in five years, instead of four years.
Here's my prediction
| Year | Yearly | Change | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 5,264,164 | N/A | 5,264,164 |
| 2011 | 1,785,728 | -66.6% | 7,049,892 |
| 2012 (so far) | 831,278 | -53.4% | 7,881,170 |
| 2012 (total) | ~1,200,000 | -32.8% | ~8,200,000 |
| 2013 | ~850,000 | -29.2% | ~9,050,000 |
| 2014 | ~450,000 | -47.1% | ~9,500,000 |
| 2015 | ~250,000 | -44.6% | ~9,750,000 |
After the PS4 releases, there's a lot of unkown factors. It's going to depend on how well the PS3 hardware does, how well PS3 software does, how much GT5 is bundled, etc.
I say it has a decent shot, but I think 9.5 million is really safe though.
