10 Week Countdown 2008 Results. - NewsVGChartz Staff , posted on 23 October 2009 / 4,339 Views
First a little background on what this is about for those unfamiliar. (Here is the thread for a more in-depth explanation) Last year I hosted a contest open to anyone willing to predict what the weekly sales would look like for the 3 home consoles at the business end of the year, possibly due to the work involved in predicting so many things at once, there were only 8 participants (including myself) but it was an interesting contest none-the-less. The task was to predict all 10 weeks hardware sales (from 26th October to 3rd January) with a prediction deadline being before any of the sales results were posted, so while most of us were accurate on the early weeks, predicting what each consoles sales will be 10 weeks in advance is more challenging.
Once the sales data started rolling in, I ran a weekly scorecard based on the original VGC figures (before any adjustments) which you can view in the thread, this was based on how far away our predictions were from the VGC figures (1% = 1 point, and the lowest score wins)
Anyone wishing to go straight to this years prediction contest (open for participants until November 1st) click here. Now onto last years results:
A warning to you here, this article contains a lot of tables that are really for the benefit of last years participants (due to this being so late) For those not interested I would suggest skipping to near the end where the actual results will be, showing who beat who at what.... The results article for the 2009 contest will be shorter as much of this stuff will be posted in the thread instead of in the article.
I apologise for this being so late, particularly to those 7 of you who joined me in the contest. Hopefully I shall continue to do this each year, and will generally aim to bring out the final results shortly after the Fiscal Year results come in (around mid May) this is due to the distance some of the larger adjustments can go back in the sales history, so while the 10 weeks people predict for end either early January or late December, it is possible they will be adjusted by significant amounts for months afterwards. I figure that leaving it till after the Fiscal Year reports from the 3 companies are released should mean that any major adjustments are over... So the 2009 results will not be as late as these, but don't expect them in February.
Predictors, Predictions and the sales themselves
Three tables (one for each console) showing what each of us predicted for the 10 weeks as well as what the original VGC figures were and what they had been adjusted to (taken in July 2009, so may not be the same as now, but will be close), all figures are in thousands... so I (TWRoO) predicted 450k for the Wii for week 1, and the actual sales were 485,528... I was just over 35k off.
(n.b. The final 2 rows of each table were exact figures, but I have had to round them so I can shorten them and thus fit the table onto the page)
Calculating the scores is then done by using the difference between the prediction and the sales, and dividing it by the sales then multiply by 100 to get the percentage error.... so using me as an example again... week 1 for the Wii I predicted 450k, the final sales figure is 485,528.
(485,528 - 450,000) / 485,528 * 100 = 7.485% error.... that is rounded to 7% and I got 7 points for that week (remember less points is better)
And as such, here is what the results were for the final VGC sales figure comparison for each console.
Tablulated weekly points
Now onto the rankings:
Rankings, winners and losers
As you can see, BHR-3 perfomed the best in both Wii and PS3 predictions, but came last for the X360... overall people's performance was not too bad for Wii and X360, but everyone overestimated the PS3 by a lot, which is why even the best racked up a massive 367 points... and pineapple (Oyvoyvoyv) was almost 700 points.... with PS3 representing such a huge portion of everyones innaccuracy, the PS3 ranking list was the main determining factor for the final ranks, which are as such:
BHR-3 wins out overall, congratulations to him.
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