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Analyst: PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X at Launch

Analyst: PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X at Launch - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 April 2020 / 5,720 Views

IHS Markit Technology analyst Piers Harding-Rolls speaking with GamesIndustry in an interview discussed the launch of the next generation of home consoles, the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X. He expects the PlayStation 5 will outsell the Xbox Series X at launch, but both will sell better than the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One did at launch. 

He expects the price between the two consoles to be similar, but will both launch at a higher price than the $399 the PlayStation 4 launched at. 

"I expect PS5 to outsell Xbox Series X in 2020, but for both platforms to sell more consoles at launch than both the PS4 and Xbox One did back in 2013. One new factor for this upcoming generation is the impact of backwards compatibility on brand loyalty and audience transition. I think we'll see less brand switching as a result. I also expect pricing of both PS5 and Xbox Series X to be similar, and I think it's more likely than not they will be higher than the PS4 launch price point of $399."

 

He only expects Microsoft to possibly release a weaker and cheaper version of its next generation console at or near launch. This has long been rumored with the weaker console having the codename of Lockhart. With the more powerful console called Xbox Series X, a weaker console might be called Xbox Series S. 

"A high price point may prompt Microsoft to follow through with a dual-pronged product strategy and release a less powerful, cheaper version of its next-gen platform during the launch window," he continued. "I don't expect Sony to follow this product strategy at launch so this approach would give Xbox more go-to-market flexibility although it would also add complexity around marketing and consumer education. Personally, I would wait to bring a cheaper version to market."

The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X will launch in Holiday 2020.


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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46 Comments
Ryng (on 02 January 2020)

I predict 6 million PS4 and 4.5 million Series X in 2020.

  • +7
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Nu-13 Ryng (on 02 January 2020)

Never gonna happen and has nothing to do with stock. Expecting both to break the current record without knowing almost anything about them is very unreasonable.

  • 0
Ryng Ryng (on 02 January 2020)

So let me understand your logic: is unreasonable to expect them to break the current record withouth knowing nothing (or almost), but is fine to say they'll NEVER have a better launch than in 2013.

How is this less silly? The reasons for my expectations is basically for Sony to have stock ready this time, prepared thanks the success of the PS4, and unlike PS4 it will launch in Japan in 2020. Microsoft will sell better because of the 2 SKUs and thanks a better reception and reveal, i'm not basing my predictions on "nothing".

  • +5
tripenfall Ryng (on 03 January 2020)

There won't be enough stock for that....

  • -1
DonFerrari Ryng (on 03 January 2020)

Were did you took that MS had more stock than Sony? The fact that they didn't run into lack of stock have more to do with they selling less (using your numbers 1.4M less) than any certainty that they had more than 4.4M in stock. Do you have any source for this claim?

  • -2
Nu-13 Ryng (on 03 January 2020)

Ryng, stock has nothing to do with this. There won't be anywhere near enough demand to get close to those numbers. Especially if both are priced at $499.

  • -1
VAMatt (on 03 January 2020)

Uh....this is a near guarantee, considering current market conditions.

Here's a similarly bold prediction - Switch will out sell both in 2020.

  • +3
tripenfall VAMatt (on 03 January 2020)

Easily

  • -1
JWeinCom (on 02 January 2020)

Backing the current leader is going to be a pretty safe bet without knowing more. You can have a situation like PS3 or XBox One where a company shits themselves at launch, but barring that, it's pretty likely the winner will keep winning.

  • +3
Xeon (on 02 January 2020)

This makes sense but realistically, both will do really well at launch. It will come down to how much each can manufacture. Games are very important as well. No one knows anything about launch games.

Sony usually starts a gen off slow in that regard in my opinion (a consequence of always supporting their current gen home consoles with software until the very end. BC might change this though, especially if tlou 2 and ghost of tsushima get enhanced ps5 editions at launch. Personally, I might just wait for the ps5 for these games.

I am expecting Xbox to have a great launch line up, headed by halo of course. Sure, you can get it on Xbox one but I suspect they will have enhancements for the series x version. Should be a great start for all. Start saving up!

  • +2
khotboat Xeon (on 03 January 2020)

Agreed, looking forward to see what xbox does with the new studios they bought. Need to see more AAA games although it may take a couple of years to build a portfolio like Sony has but i guess we will find out this year what they have for next gen

  • -1
Paatar (on 02 January 2020)

Idk. We have no idea what the PS5 is really and we know that Series X will be launching with Halo: Infinite, which could end up reviving the series and making the Series X have a strong launch.

  • +2
DonFerrari Paatar (on 03 January 2020)

And still launch aligned X360 never sold more than PS3, the gen where Xbox had most advantages against PS so it's the safer bet to expect PS5 to outsell XSX.

  • -3
khotboat Paatar (on 03 January 2020)

True but Sony has been pretty silent on ps5 launch games. Only one i know of is Godfall and idk if its a launch title. Considering how 343 has treated halo, i think players will be hesitant to buy infinite until they see gameplay.

  • 0
aiwass Paatar (on 04 January 2020)

A Microsoft wet dream but Halo hasn't had the best reputation over the past decade.

  • -1
HollyGamer (on 02 January 2020)

it's good for both company

  • +2
KLAMarine (on 02 January 2020)

A bold and brave claim. /s

  • +1
Replicant KLAMarine (on 03 January 2020)

Well, you have a bunch of Nintendo fans claiming that the two will struggle out of the gate. So according to them, it's a bold claim, yes.

  • 0
KLAMarine KLAMarine (on 03 January 2020)

"you have a bunch of Nintendo fans claiming that the two will struggle out of the gate"

Which ones?

  • +1
Replicant KLAMarine (on 03 January 2020)

I never bookmark things but for instance The_Liquid_Laser says that "the PS5 is going to struggle out of the gate": http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9038554

Whether he'll be right or wrong is not the point. The point is that this analyst's prediction is indeed bold according to him.

  • -1
SwitchUP (on 06 January 2020)

Well.... that's that I guess. Just like how the saints were going to crush the vikings.... why bother... right? Oh... wait.

  • 0
DonFerrari (on 03 January 2020)

Thank god it isn't Patcher or I would worry about both consoles and about PS5 outselling XSX.

  • 0
tripenfall (on 03 January 2020)

Yeah because its $399 vs $599 probably.....

  • 0
Nu-13 tripenfall (on 03 January 2020)

Probably neither.

  • -2
derpysquirtle64 (on 02 January 2020)

Quite an easy prediction

  • 0
ironmanDX (on 02 January 2020)

If the stock is there... No shit Sherlock. :-D

  • -1
Mystro-Sama (on 05 January 2020)

Kinda obvious. Playstation has been a household name for decades. Its going to have all the third parties AND jrpgs which know the Xbox won't have.

  • -2
aiwass (on 04 January 2020)

I mean, the PS3 and XB360 final tally was extremely close, so the beginning of this generation was anyones' game. If Microsoft's silly marketing pitch of "THE WORLD'S MOST RECENT CONSOLE IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND" didn't work for the 160 million end users I don't see why it would change this generation.

  • -2
Azzanation (on 02 January 2020)

Obviously the Series X isnt going to set the world on fire with sale records as its due to be the most expensive console on the market. I believe thats why Lockhart exists, to cover the pricing issue. I'll be more interested in knowing how well Lockhart sells if its priced accordingly.

  • -3
Nu-13 Azzanation (on 02 January 2020)

Care to show the source of that obviousness? Because there is no word on pricing for either the ps5 or xsx.

  • +2
Azzanation Azzanation (on 02 January 2020)

Rumours are suggesting that the Series X will be the most expensive console on the market.

  • +1
poroporo Azzanation (on 05 January 2020)

It's plausible that both consoles will be more expensive based on the price of NAND storage and RAM.
https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/722141-2020-01/

  • 0
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SwitchUP Azzanation (on 06 January 2020)

How dare you not say the ps5 is going to smash the xbox?! What are you, crazy or something?! I agree with you.

  • +1
Mr Puggsly (on 02 January 2020)

Why post this shit? There are countless scenarios where we could see PS5 outselling Series X.

  • -4
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method114 shikamaru317 (on 02 January 2020)

No one will no for sure of course but his point about BC is very true. Leaving Sony this gen means you lose your whole library at this point on top of your trophies. How many people are really willing to do that after Xbox has been horrible with exclusives? I almost didn't leave xbox just because of my achievements but I had to and I'm glad I did. Xbox will need to show they've truly changed all next gen for me to even consider them. They always make big promises and then cancel a bunch of games.

  • +2
Nu-13 shikamaru317 (on 02 January 2020)

making a looooot of assumptions there. Everything not officialy announced or credibly leaked shouldn't be considered and it's far more likely that both consoles are close in specs and have the same price.

  • +3
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Nu-13 shikamaru317 (on 02 January 2020)

Digital foundry merely analyzed what was talked about. They didn't claim any insider information and only sony/MS are trustworthy sources.

  • -1
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DonFerrari shikamaru317 (on 03 January 2020)

I can.
No matter how many SKUs MS put for launch they won't beat PS5 unless Sony decides to fuck up majorly (very unlikely) or don't produce enough (even less likely).

  • -3
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