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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nine Nintendo sales predictions

Here are 9 of my Nintendo sales predictions. Discuss!

1)
The period from september 2008 to februari 2010 will be the peak of the Wii software and hardware wise. Good third party releases in this time period will sell really well (500k+)

2) Examples of games selling at least 500k (or even a million) in this period (within a year from release):
Star Wars Force Unleashed (million seller)
SimCity Creator
Call of Duty World at War (million seller)
The Conduit (million seller)
MadWorld
House of the Dead Overkill
Star Wars Clone Wars
Quantum of Solace
Lego Batman
Sonic Unleashed (million seller)
Sonic and the Black Knight
Spyborgs
Final Fantasy CC Crystal Bearers (million seller)
Monster Hunter 3 (million seller)
My Sims Kingdom
Spore (million seller)
Rayman Raving Rabids TV Party (million seller)
Castlevania Judgment
Skate It
Shaun White Snowboarding
Popular peripheral based music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Samba de Amigo)
Popular EA and Konami Sports games (Fifa, Madden, Pro Evolution Socccer)

3) Call of Duty World at War will at least sell 750k units within a year. The Conduit will at least sell 800k units within a year.

4) Week ending april 25th 2009: No More Heroes will have sold 450k, Zack & Wiki will break 500k.

5) Week ending may 23th 2009: Wii will have sold over 50 million.

6) Wii will get a price drop between november 2009 and may 2010

7) The week ending february 6th 2010: Wii will have sold between 70 and 77 million units.

8) The Wii will stay a viable platform to release main titles on at least until january 2013. At the very best, the Wii is here to stat until january 2018.

9) The Wii will have sold at the absolute minimum a 100 million units at the time it stopped selling. I'm positive it won't ever reach 200 million. My prediction is that the Wii will have sold about 150 million units at the time it stops selling, which will be early 2016.



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Not bad. Nothing too crazy



Chrizum said:


9) The Wii will have sold at the absolute minimum a 100 million units at the time it stopped selling. I'm positive it won't ever reach 200 million. My prediction is that the Wii will have sold about 150 million units at the time it stops selling, which will be early 2016.

Wii can't sell over 100 million units by the time it has stopped selling because it will have negative sales from 2010 allowing PS3 to overtake it and win this gen.  So although it will get to 100 milion it will end up finishing below 100 million.  Otherwise I pretty much agree with your predictions. 

 



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3 and 6 seem to contradict each other.

 

Edit....Sheesh...you edited it.



super_etecoon said:

3 and 6 seem to contradict each other.

 

Edit....Sheesh...you edited it.


Sorry, I fixed it. I meant february 6th 2010, not 2009. The predictions are now in chronological order.



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fairly conservative predictions for the most part, i agree with them all pretty much



Good read, good predictions. Most are pretty safe, but that doesn't make them bad.



The only one that seems a little hopeful is the 2018 thing. Seems a bit too long. The hardware will be really outdated by then.



They aren't too bad! I like a lot of them, they feel quite realistic while at the same time it isn't overly pessimistic.



Tease.

The Conduit wont sell 1 million copies. Thats the only thing i disagree with



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