NPD Reports USA Video Game Sales for the four weeks ending Nov 28
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 10 December 2009 / 6,221 Views
NPD has released its November 2009 (covering November 1- November 28) figures which include Black Friday sales. Hardware sales were strong for the month, but down overall from 2008. All Novembers are four weeks.
November 2009 November 2008 November 2007
Wii 1,260,000 2,040,000 981,000
DS 1,700,000 1,570,000 1,530,000
X360 819,500 836,000 770,000
PS3 710,400 378,000 466,000
PSP 293,900 421,000 567,000
PS2 203,100 206,000 496,000
Figures in red indicate a drop from the previous year, while figures in blue denote increased sales for the previous year. DS is the only system currently selling in the United States to see growth from November 2006 to November 2007 to November 2008 to November 2009. The DS figure looks it is an all time record figure for a portable in November, and it just missed the all time November hardware record set by Wii last year. Even with a nearly 800,000 unit decline over last November, 1.26m is still damn close to what PS2 did in its best November back in 2002 (the Internet says PS2 sold 1.28m in November 2002 by NPD figures). In other words, in its off year, Wii is still trending to match 2002 the peak PS2 year in the USA after beating the best PS2 year in 2008.
It is also interesting to note that PS3 and DS saw the vast majority of their November sales during Black Friday week 440k/710.4k for PS3, and 1000k/1700k for DS. That means PS3 averaged 90,000 in the other three November weeks, barely up from October which was 80,000 per week. DS averaged 233,000 in the other three November weeks - significantly up from the 114,000 per week in sold in October. Wii sold less than half its November total during Black Friday week (550k/1260k), meaning it averaged 237,000 in non-Black Friday weeks - actually more than DS managed to sell.
Lifetime to date hardware bases are still rapidly increasing toward massive penetration even though overall hardware sales dropped from 5.45m in November 2008 to 4.99m in November 2009. Below is a look at the lifetime sales of the six systems in the USA, with year to date figures following.
System Lifetime Year to Date
PS2 44.80m 1.47m
DS 35.42m 7.88m
Wii 23.31m 5.78m
X360 17.32m 3.46m
PSP 16.16m 1.84m
PS3 9.76m 2.97m
The other big story for the month was software. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, New Super Mario Bros Wii, and Assassin's Creed 2 all had debuts well over a million units. Call of Duty accounted for a quarter of all software revenue generated in the month
Even with the massive Call of Duty debut, USA video game industry revenue dropped to $2.7b, a 7.6% decline from last November. Next month probably won't be as soft a decline as hardware sales should still be down, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 won't be able to account for a quarter of industry software revenue as it did in November.
As a preview of next month, it is important to recognize which hardware systems saw the biggest growth from October 2009, which was also a four week month.
|
|
Oct 09' | Nov 09' | Nov/Oct Rate |
| DS | 457,600 | 1,700,000 | 3.72 |
| Wii | 506,900 | 1,260,000 | 2.49 |
| X360 | 249,700 | 819,500 | 3.28 |
| PS3 | 320,600 | 710,400 | 2.22 |
| PSP | 174,600 | 293,900 | 1.68 |
| PS2 | 117,800 | 203,100 | 1.72 |
If DS can come anywhere close to doubling its November, it should top the all time record for hardware sales in a month which was set last year by the DS. DS only needs a 75% month over month increase to top 3.04m. It could be just doable since December will be five weeks while November was four.
Historically, when system sales double or more from October to November it is an indication that demand and supply for the system is strong. Looking at the chart above, DS should clear 3m, although I don't quite think it can double 1.7m units. Wii might top 2.5m since it is having its first supply-constraint free Christmas. The absence of supply constraints is particularly useful since Walmart has a $50 gift card deal early in the month which makes Wii effectively $100 less to purchase in Dec 2009 then in Dec 2008. Beyond Nintendo's machines, X360 and PS3 will both have a realistic shot at 1.5m. PSP might get to 725,000 or so as it tends to increase more from November to December than it does in October to November. The PS2 may also top 400,000 one final time.
DS hardware should go a long way to determining what the December top ten looks like as well. Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros DS and a few other key DS titles continually attach to new users at a 10-20% rate. If the top ten cuts off at 500,000 and DS sells 3.25m, Mario Kart and NSMB will both probably come in the lower third of the top ten even though the titles are years old, ancient in this industry. A number of Wii titles should see increased sales as well. In 2008, when 5.2m Nintendo systems were sold in December 13 of the top 20 games in the month were for Wii & DS. This December, the rate will probably be similar with stronger Wii + DS (~5.75m) sales, stronger content, and a bigger base offset by stronger PS3 + 360 sales (~3.2m), a bigger base, and stronger content.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
