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Analyst: Switch Sold 11 Million Units in Q4 2018, Likely to Hit 20 Million Forecast

Analyst: Switch Sold 11 Million Units in Q4 2018, Likely to Hit 20 Million Forecast - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 March 2019 / 5,099 Views

The Nintendo Switch sold 11 million units in the Q4 2018, according to a report from Wall Street Journal reporter Takashi Mochizuki. Mochizuki says the odds of Nintendo hitting the 20 million forecast is more likely to happen after a strong holiday period. 

The Nintendo Switch in the first half of the current fiscal, through October 31, sold 5.1 million units. If the 11 million figure is correct the platform has sold 16.1 million units in the current fiscal year so far.

A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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25 Comments
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OTBWY (on 16 January 2019)

This would be such a large serving of crow, I cannot tell you.

  • +7
Johnw1104 OTBWY (on 17 January 2019)

I would be very impressed. I think I was among the more optimistic in regards to their chances, but 20 million still seemed like a dangerously ambitious projection that ran the risk of disappointing shareholders despite an otherwise excellent year. 20 million would be one heck of a success!

  • 0
OTBWY OTBWY (on 17 January 2019)

I actually remain sceptical. I think it's just gonna be close but not precisely there. Either way, even if it is 19m, that's still an amazing performance.

  • 0
TheBlackNaruto (on 16 January 2019)

They might be able to do it if these numbers are true!

  • +3
Ljink96 (on 16 January 2019)

I wonder which goal people will doubt from Nintendo next.

  • +2
peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

If nintendo sold 11m to consumers in Q3, then less than 3.9m is needed for Q4. If the 11m number is shipments then it will need 3.9 Jan-Mar. All to play for!

  • +2
Kristof81 peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

That's the average of 300k per week (13 weeks) ... doable

  • 0
peachbuggy peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

300k shipped per week, definitely doable!

  • 0
VAMatt peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

If they need to move 3.9mm January through March, I'd call it doable, but not likely. They would need the Mario retread to move a fair numbers of Switch units, which I can't see happening.

  • 0
mjk45 peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

Anyone know what it sold Jan - Mar, last year?

  • 0
VAMatt peachbuggy (on 16 January 2019)

I recall it being like 2.4mm last year. I haven't looked it up though.

  • 0
gord352 (on 17 January 2019)

If this is true then the Switch has to sell 3.9mill over the next 13 weeks. This means selling 300k per week. I can`t see them managing this (certainly not if you look at last years figures). They will end over 1mill short I reckon but that would still be an impressive total.

  • 0
Jranation gord352 (on 17 January 2019)

They will be using shipped numbers / Sold to shops.

  • +1
tripenfall (on 16 January 2019)

Whether they make 20 million or not the numbers are amazing. 2019 is the year of the Switch - with the old age and large install base of the PS4 there's no reason why the Switch can't outsell the PS4 in 2019 2:1... It just needs games now...

  • 0
Rightling tripenfall (on 16 January 2019)

Yeah but the PS4 is also going to have a hot line up of games this year and probably the next. Lots of exclusives plus hardware price is already lower than the Switch. I doubt Switch will outsell PS4 in 2019.

  • 0
tripenfall tripenfall (on 17 January 2019)

It's a good point you raise Rightling and the PS4 is a beast, no doubt about that. I do however believe that Switch sales in 2019 will be very very good and at the end of the day most people who want a PS4 already have one.
It will be interesting to see what happens but I predict in 2019 Switch will sell 25 million consoles and the PS4 will sell 13 million....

  • +1
JWeinCom (on 16 January 2019)

Using PS4 Jan-March figures as a guide, this is a tough but doable goal.

  • 0
Fight-the-Streets (on 16 January 2019)

According to official numbers from the half year report from Nintendo (1 March to 30 September) they shipped 5.05 mil. during that time. In my opinion the 5.1. mil sold from above until October 31 must be sold-through numbers. Otherwise, they would have shipped only 95k in whole of October. That seems very unrealistic.

  • 0
kirby007 (on 16 January 2019)

3.9 for jan march? 12x250=3m not happening

  • 0
Amnesia kirby007 (on 16 January 2019)

I believe that at this point, shipments are already concluded, unless we see a massive drop in sales, which is not the case at all...They have not cut the price yet, they are confident to make it. They might even provocate everybody in increasing to 21M as their new goal.

  • +1
Jranation (on 16 January 2019)

Get them threads ready!

  • 0
Kristof81 (on 16 January 2019)

That's 2.8M minus next week, compared to VGC figures.

  • 0
Nogamez (on 16 January 2019)

Huh? I thought Q4 ended in March?

  • 0
Paatar Nogamez (on 16 January 2019)

That’s the end of the fiscal year. Each quarter refers to every 3 months of the year. So quarter 4 is October, November and December. :)

  • +1
konkari (on 17 January 2019)

Switch sells as Xmas presents, while PS and XB people buy for themselves. I wonder how much Switch gets returns.

  • -6