UBS Analyst Group: Wii to lead in 2010, PS3 second, Xbox 360 3rd - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 01 May 2007 / 1,428 Views
Benjamin Schachter, an analyst at USB, expects the following break down in 2010:
Japan:
Wii - 20.5 million, PS3 11.5 million, Xbox 360 900,000
America:
Xbox 360 - 22 million, PS3 21 million, Wii 19 million
Europe:
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million, PS3 14 million, 12.5 million Wii
Worldwide exact figures (above figures are rounded):
Wii - 51.9 million, PS3 - 47.2 million, Xbox 360 - 38.9 million.
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16002
My comments below:
The story does not go into how many consoles are expected to be sold after 2010. However, the numbers given add upto only 138 million. Given that over 180 million consoles were sold between DC, PS2, XBOX & GC, and that sales of PS2 remain solid worldwide, it seems likely that 70-100 million more consoles will be sold in the years 2011-2014 for Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, given market and population growth.
In 3.5 years, Xbox 360 will likely cost less than what Wii costs now, giving it one last sales push, as PS3 finally reaches the magic under-$300 range.
If market trends were to continue following the UBS estimates, Wii would continue to do very well in Japan as that market approaches 40 million consoles sold, while Xbox 360 would likely drop off in America and Europe a bit due to age as PS3's base grows neck and neck with 360.
While this report will likely not come true as predicted, it is not as "out there" as other predictions by analysts. If the sales figures in 2010 near the USB predictions, I would expect final sales to be the most fragmented in the history of the industry, with a near even 3 way split in Europe (likely led just barely by PS3), Nintendo on top in Japan, and Microsoft with 40% of the USA market. The report also implies that the space between top console and bottom console will be within 30-40 million units at the conclusion of the cycle, instead of the massive 100 million gap PS2 will finish with over Xbox and GC.
- The Source
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Oh sorry, just took a second look at those PS3 numbers... maybe they're more than just a bit high.
Hmm... We're not at 2010 yet, but these numbers are not all THAT bad, it seems. Downplaying the wii, but not by that much. Also overplaying the PS3, but still not by that much... We'll see how goes in the end.
hey I'm a PS3 fan, but those numbers look fine to me. with them being so close the PS3 will be sure to get a lot of support along w/ everyone else.
what the hell, no way will the 360 beat the PS3 in europe by a wider margin than the us, none of these analysts realise how underwhelming 360's performance is in europe, they've sold about 2.5 million in europe so far at most
All the numbers seem a bit low. I don't think a good estimate will come until a few holiday seasons pass. Wii and PS3 were severly short on suplly for 1st Holiday. If those numbers are on target for 2010 then the Wii failed to expand the market at all. Also the PS2 will likely have sold more than the Wii PS3 and 360 combined. That doesnt sound right.
As Mr G2 has pointed out, they are forecasting that the 360 wins Europe. That means it's pretty much just a pile of bs that's not worth thinking about too much.
I don't know where you people are getting a 10 year life cycle from..
I envisioned it like:
Xbox 360 (some sales from) 2005-2012
Wii (some sales from) 2006-2013
PS3 (some sales from 2006-2014
That is 8 years tops.
PS2 (some sales from) 2000-2008
In terms of the vast majority of sales (4/5+ sales) I see this as realistic:
Wii 2006-2011
PS3 2006-2012
360 2005-2010
My biggest problem with those numbers is I can't see the 360 winning Europe. It just can't do well enough outside the UK. Outside that they seem feasible. I do see a threeway race where the 360, PS3 and Wii win The US, Europe and Japan respectively. I still stick with my ultimate prediction of this gen going 1. PS3, 2. Will, and 3. 360, though by 2010 it seems likely the Wii will still be in the lead.
As was posted above, analysts like to fudge prev forecasts as little as possible as it generally makes them look pretty bad if they all of a sudden predict a different scenario that strongly contradicts their prev analysis. Keep in mind, its not a game for them, its their livelihood and repuatation. y guess is they will simply continue fugdging their forecasts over time until about 2010.
I do not think Sony is going to jump up to such numbers so quick; post 2010 they might actually have a good value proposition once they get their price tag to the $200 range. Pre-2010, their costs are so high, especially now they dumped the 20 GB version, that they ahve a Long March ahead of them.
Xbox 360 numbers seem doable by 2010, alhto MS needs to do something to get some media coverage, all I ever read about lately in the news is Nintendo/Wii and Sony. They need to get back into the limelight imo. The elite did not accmomplish this, altho it was a good try.
Re: games needing graphics and AI, ask yourself this, what do those things accomplish? IT accomplishes a greater degree of immersion for the player. Nintendo has accomplished this a different way, by adding physical motion to the game instead of just more eye candy. THere are more senses than just sight. The idea of a motion sensor is not new; the idea of making a motion sensor the primary controller in a cheap mass produced unit, is however new. Prev attempts at this did not ahve the motion sensor included in the basic package, so few to none of the devs supported it. Now, they have to as thats the default controller. I recall the Power Glove back in the 80s, I had one as kid growing up. Nothing really utilized it though b/c the install base was so slight; it was considered a gimmick.
I think its safe to say we have passed the gimmicky stage with the WIi controller. into the realm of genuine consumer interest and curiousity. Thats an impressive feat for Nintendo to ahve accomplished. I wish I could say I have always been a blver in Nintendo but quite honestly, until I saw the demo systems in BB and CC, I thought Nintendo was a downward spiral in the console indsutry. 1 year ago I woulfd have laughed at the thought of buying Nintendo stock; currently I have some $12,000 in shares of NTDOY that are up over 30% since I bought em just a few months ago. (This is mostly courtesy of the DS, Wii is pumping the stocks future trajectory though).
Finally, I dont think this generation will alst 10 years. I recall reading these stories at PS2 time; people kept commenting on how the PS2 was basically a supercomputer and had all kinds of anecdotal stories about nasty 3rd world countries using them for guidance systems on SCUD missles and it was so pwoerful blah blha blah. They thought the PS2 would last forever.
If that generation didnt last 10 yrs, this one certainly wont. I think phaseouts will occur around 2011, with total end of life around 2013. Sony may try to make up for poor early performance of the PS3 with a longer shelf life; I dont think thats a good strategy to follow in the video game sector. After a time, people get bored of their games and decide to move up to whatever is new. Nintendo and MS will both have their next gen systems out at that point and thats an uphill competition for Sony I think, as Nintendo in particular will be comepting at its price point with newer product; I doubt Nintendo will abandon the Wiimote that quickly either. SO what will happen when PS3 has to compete with a more powerful version of Wii that can exceed it graphics wise, has the Wiimote, and is in similar price point?
Past 5-6 years, these systems will not stand up. This is always thew way of thing sin semiconductors.
The numbers seem pretty right to me, there isn't going to be a single console that completely outsells both of the others combined this generations, like in the last two generations....
to be honest i will be suprised if wii makes it 5-6years let alone 10years.
I know its fun atm but games need smarter AI and some what better graphics. However AI is what needs to improve. Now i'm no expert i know AI doesn't require much processing power compared to graphics. But look at it this way if wii has X amount dedicated to AI and say PS3 has 10X dedicated just to AI eventually down the track in the future those games will be much smarter and more challenging to play.
I see that they still expect Sony to rocket off into space by those numbers.
Historically, top two had approximately 70% market share in each generation. This is a very tough fact for analysts, who tends to adjust a bit and not to go extremes. In fact there are still uncertainties around pricing and functionalities and the video game industry is really dynamic, as all of you know. That said, it looks to me that PS3 number is a challenge for Sony. It might also be interesting to think about demand from emerging regions in 2010.
So, in 6 Months Analysts have gone from saying that the Wii would trail far behind the PS3 and XBox 360 to saying the Wii will win a close battle between the three. Personally, I doubt the PS3/XBox 360 numbers because the PS3 is selling slower than the Gamecube did and the XBox 360 is selling at a similar rate to the XBox ...
Are people really expecting this generation to go on for 10 years when the others have lasted between 4 and 6 years?
ok that was wierd. As my pc refreshed from posting the source appeared.
So, TheSource, where is the source?
nothing...
