The 100 Week Assessment: The Wii Generation vs. the PS2 Generation - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 22 November 2008 / 13,926 Views

Jacob Mazel

The 100 Week Assessment: Trends of the Wii Generation Compared to the PS2 Generation

Outline of Purpose

The purpose of this article is to track the growth in the industry, by comparing 100 weeks of sales in each of the three world regions to show when the newer systems began to outpace their ancestors. So each point on the x-axis below should be read as total sales in a region for a platform or the industry measured by how long the object (or objects) in question are on the market, rather than how far ahead or behind they are from rivals at a given point. In other words, the 100 week data point for the generations is the total of the two sets of triplets at 100 weeks (region, generation).

As of mid November 2008, we have 100 weeks of data for Xbox 360 and Wii in all world markets, as well as for PS3 in the Americas in Japan. PS2, Xbox, and GC data for 100 weeks is completely available as well. Since PS3 had numerous launches in the “Others” region though, this comparison will be trimmed to “Americas”, “Europe” and “Japan” for the two generations, which accounts for ~95%-97% of sales worldwide anyway in most weeks. For PS3, which launched in March 2007 in Europe, estimates for sales at weeks 90 and 100 are used, based on how well the system has sold in the weeks leading up to week 87 (the most recent week). This in turn impacts the “Wii generation” sales estimates below.

Still, the graphs below, despite the caveats above are quite reflective of the industry.

Japan

In Japan, the PS2 generation is holding its own against the Wii generation. This is partly due to the massive success of the portables (~35m DS+PSP portables sold to date, and counting). On the other hand, Japan, for all of Microsoft’s recent effort, is still essentially a two console market, and that market seems to have chosen interface over graphical improvement. Reaching 5% in last generation’s market would be about 1.3m consoles and Microsoft will likely achieve a final market share in that range in this generation. The question of course is how big the Japanese console market will be. So far, the market has been more susceptible to waves than usual, with the PS2 generation ahead in weeks 0 to 50, the Wii generation ahead in weeks 50 to 90, and then a switch back around week 95. The image below depicts the fluctuations:

Remember the weeks depicted are equal to sales for y weeks of PS2+GC+Xbox compared to sales for y weeks of Xbox 360 + PS3 + Wii sales. In other words, week ten is ten weeks of PS2+Xbox+GC sales to get ten weeks of “PS2 gen” sales compared to ten weeks of Wii+PS3+Xbox 360 sales to get ten weeks of “Wii gen” sales.

The only data point on the chart above that shows understandable ‘negative’ growth is launch week. The PS2 launch week + the Xbox launch week + the Game Cube launch week equaled a far bigger total than the Wii + PS3 + 360 launch weeks simply because every kid in Japan wanted a PS2, and Sony made sure they could get one at launch. Adding the three ten week totals up by generation though, it is a bit surprising that sales were still down since a number of big games had been released in the current generation by that point. The week sixty growth comes from big software releases on each console at about this time, notably Wii Fit, Blue Dragon, and Dynasty Warriors 6. The PS2 generation in contrast was in a bit of quiet period, which ended in Japan around the end of 2001 for PS2 (~week 90).

While Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 will all see improved sales after week 100 in Japan, it is looking like this generation will be smaller than the previous one in Japan, since most of the compelling content for Japanese gamers is on DS and PSP, and will likely migrate to their successors as well. Still, there should be 25m Japanese consoles sold, and the Wii generation will likely re-overtake the PS2 generation at least once more in late 2009, in the period when the portables quiet down, compelling third party software from Japanese developers arrives on Wii, but before hype for the next machines begins to seriously build.

Americas

In 100 weeks of sales for the three machines of the Wii generation, the industry has been outpacing the rate of the previous generation since about week 40 which is roughly when PS3 saw its first price adjustment. Since then, the Wii generation has accelerated well ahead of the PS2 generation totals. In 100 weeks of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360s sales, 29m of those machines were sold. During the previous generation, 100 weeks of PS2, Xbox and GC sales in the Americas added up to almost 24m machines.

Nearly 80m PS2 generation machines were (are being) sold in the Americas, so if the growth was to flat line at 20%, nearly 100m Wii generation machines would be sold in the Americas. However, there is no reason to expect a slow down. The Wii generation is still quite expensive. Microsoft and Sony have big gaming division losses, historical and current to try to make up. Nintendo has no direct competition with Wii (although as always there is fierce indirect competition). All of these factors suggest it is in the best interest of the three companies to support the machines for another three to five years. With a huge holiday 2008 not included in the chart above either, the 110 week comparison alone will likely show 30% or more improvement over the PS2 gen market at 110 weeks, compared to the 20% improvement seen from the PS2 to Wii generation at 100 weeks.

Europe

Vgchartz tracks “Others” as one region, though it includes Europe, Asia excluding Japan, Africa, and the rest of world outside North & South America. However, PS3 had multiple launches within this region, so for peace of mind and fairness, we’re just looking at Europe here.

The European market is showing enormous growth from the previous generation. In 100 weeks of availability across Europe for PS2, GC and Xbox, sales added up to a little bit over 15m units. In 100 weeks of sales for Wii, Xbox 360, and 87 weeks of PS3 sales (supplemented by an estimate for the final thirteen weeks to get to a comparable 100), nearly 23m current generation machines will be sold. The reason for this is that while Nintendo has been able to quadruple its console sales in Europe through 100 weeks, Sony has only been knocked back about 15% (based on the estimate for PS3 at 100 weeks).

Think of the logistics for that in the other regions. If Wii was outpacing PS2 in the Americas as it is in Europe, but PS3 was only down from PS2 by 15% in the Americas, Microsoft would be something of a dead duck, since PS3 sales would be at over 11m already in the Americas. Xbox and Xbox 360 in contrast, have performed nearly identically in Europe through 100 weeks, although Microsoft has seen significant improvement due to its strategic price drops in subsequent weeks to the right of where the chart below cuts off. Nonetheless, when Wii and PS3 have been on the market for 150 weeks, they will continue to be significantly ahead of Xbox 360 in terms of total sales by equal time on the market. With the overall growth of the market, but comparable Xbox and Xbox 360 sales, Microsoft’s share in Europe has actually dipped through 100 weeks despite increased effort and a year to year and a half lead on the continent over its rivals. This is why the Wii and PS3 have and will overtake Xbox 360 in Europe despite Microsoft’s aggressive price cuts.

It is also worth pointing out that the enormous PS3 launch in Europe, caused by pent up demand over the delay, has ensured that this is the one world region where there has never even been a hint of slow down from the previous generation.

World

The six machines in this comparison follow two basic patterns, though the PS3 pattern appears not quite cemented yet based on its positioning. Remember, “10” on the bottom means each machine has had 10 weeks of sales in Europe, Japan, and the Americas summed to reach the worldwide total at that point on the chart; it is not from a single launch point from one date.

In 100 weeks of sales in each of the three regions, Wii generation sales are up over 20% from PS2 generation sales in the same time frame in each region. Each newer machine is outdoing one of its older predecessors. Wii, the top machine is outselling PS2 by a significant margin. Xbox 360 is outselling Xbox, and PS3 is outselling Game Cube.

Using the projected PS3 sales in Europe for weeks 90 and 100 for a moment, the actual contribution by platform for the past two generations has looked like so through week 100:

Again these totals are based on exactly the same time availability of each platform in each region added together for world totals at a given week. So the red portion of the bar at week twenty is PS2 total sales twenty weeks after twenty weeks on sale in Japan, twenty weeks on sale in the Americas, and twenty weeks on sale in Europe. Every bit of data for the six platforms is available through 100 weeks except for PS3 sales in Europe where the system has only been on shelves for 87 weeks (the next thirteen weeks are estimated).

At 100 weeks, top console sales (Wii vs. PS2) have increased by about 16%. Given that PS2 had a price drop, and was not really supply constrained in 2002, the equivalent point to where Wii is, this bodes well for Nintendo. Through 100 weeks in each region, the sales of second and third place machines grew from almost 21m to over 28m, roughly 35% growth.

The PS2 generation will finish up at about 185m units, about a 7:2 increase from week 50 totals. The Wii generation, though more expensive has already shown growth. With additional room for price cuts, this generation of machines could end up seeing perhaps as much as a 5:1 increase from the 62m machines sold through 100 weeks in the three major regions. The current explosion relative to last generation shows no sign of slowing in direct comparison. In the image below you can see that there has been a migration toward the current generation selling more. This is depicted by adding PS2 Gen + Wii Gen totals, and then determining what percentage each generation had out of the ‘combined gen total’.

Through forty weeks, if the PS2 gen and Wii gen had launched to the same sales in each region worldwide, the PS2 gen would have ‘won’. But after that, the trend has been toward the Wii gen. Week 100, which depends most on PS3 sales projections at 100 weeks in Europe (where its only been out for 87 weeks), will likely end up down a bit from my estimations if the pattern trend is robust and not random or fluky.

Conclusions about Worldwide Trends

The last graph to consider is the relative performance of the industry itself and the major players on a simple x-y basis, where x is current, and y is the old generation. Where current sales are increased compared to the previous era, the lines on the chart will look like they heading up and to the right on your monitor. With this simple method, we can assess the performance of Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony and how trends are migrating.

In 100 weeks, the pace which Wii is ahead of Game Cube is already more than the number of Game Cubes sold in its entire shelf life. At 100 weeks, Microsoft began to see Xbox 360 begin to break a bit more sharply from the Xbox pattern, and subsequent weeks show (which we have for 360 but not the others since it launched in 2005 and not 2006) that the growth compared to Xbox is a real trend and not a fluke (see the image below). The red line is PS3 sales relative to PS2 sales by week of availability in each region, and the trend is certainly not good. It’s not so much a matter of PS3 doing terrible, but rather that the closer we get to the peak of PS2 in 2002 to 2004, without a PS3 explosion, the further behind the platform is going to fall. Until, or unless that red line downward begins to flat line, there is less and less chance that PS3 will get anywhere near PS2 sales.

A chart depicting the NES to SNES, SNES to PS1, PS1 to PS2 transitions would have shown a similar decline for Nintendo consoles, but the interesting thing to consider is the difference in sharpness. At 100 weeks, the red line is at -12.5m, meaning PS3 sales in 100 weeks in each of three regions add up to 12.5m less than what PS2 had done in 100 weeks in those three regions. The biggest drop Nintendo ever suffered was SNES to N64 – 16m (i.e. in 2002, N64 was ~16m below where SNES was in 1997) – but that drop in pace was over the course six years or so which is triple the amount of time depicted on the chart above. At the decline rate the PS3 pace against PS2 pace is going, the system could be 60m off pace given 12.5m in 100 weeks, and Sony’s claim of supporting PS3 for 10 years (520 weeks). This does roughly tie in with sales expectations of about 60m for PS3 over the course of its lifetime if the red line were to stabilize in its downward descent rather than increase, decrease, flat line, or retreat upward. On the other hand, between week thirty and week fifty there is a bit of a stabilization at 4m off the PS2 pace in lieu of when the price adjustments began to appear, so its still possible that the rate PS3 is off the PS2 rate will stop or reverse a bit with timely price cuts.

If we extend the graph to 150 weeks for the Xbox 360 though, we see one of Sony’s problems is that Microsoft has actually made significant progress in expanding the Xbox brand to new people in the last year. If we remember for a second that the original Xbox was on pace to sell perhaps 30m had it not been killed prematurely, that Xbox 360 is trending 4m ahead already, with a higher price and longer life of support likely, Xbox 360 should have no trouble reaching 40m or 45m at least.

One other point can be made about the picture above. The great debate over the last two years has been whether Wii is actually drawing in new people to the videogame industry. By performing 23m units better than Game Cube did in each systems first 100 weeks in the three world regions, it is mathematically impossible for Wii to not be drawing in beyond the old Nintendo base. That much every one agrees on.

However, the Xbox 360 is only up a smidge through 100 weeks, and more importantly, PS3 is down only 12.5m from the PS2 pace through 100 weeks. If you assume that Microsoft kept all of its owners for the sake of argument, and that Wii has picked up all of the people who had a PS2 within 100 weeks, but not a PS3 within 100 weeks because these people are dedicated to gaming (by virtue of their previous early adoption), then you are still about 10m shy of the GC to Wii pacing increase.

In other words, even if every single PS2 owner who bought the system within 100 weeks but didn’t buy a PS3 bought a Wii within 100 weeks, there are 10m additional Wii owners to account for. If this is the case…where did they come from?

These are the likely reasons behind the Wii-sales padding:

- Because the Wii interface is easier to user, there is now faster game player growth rate than whatever the usual growth rate is.

- Because Wii is mass-market priced while Xbox 360 (not really true anymore) and PS3 were/are not, the ‘average’ PS2 owner is upgrading to Wii, and more quickly because of the bigger hype/advertising/interface/pricing differences than usual which would mean…

- The Wii is the new PS2: It has enough games for the masses, most hardcore gamers have it even though its likely not their favorite system, its “cool”, it has differentiation, it is tapping the ongoing growth of the three major markets by building a bigger tent, as PS2 did, about who games.

- Gaming doubles every two generations…usually because the level of realistic interaction is increased. The last doubling generation was SNES to PS1 (80m SNES & GEN to 150m PS1/N64/Saturn) when the industry went “3D”.

- The extra 10m could also just be older gamers returning home to their old hobby for one reason or another.

Looking at the data, and comparing it to the demographic data Nintendo posts on its IR site, the growth does have one major source: the fairer sex. This source of growth appears to be most key to the European increase in the videogame market as it doesn’t look like Wii took much of Sony’s PS2 market given that a) PS3:PS2 price is less of factor than in other regions since Europeans always get ripped off, and b) Wii sales quadrupled, while PS3 sales are only off the PS2 pace by about 15% in Europe. While the industry is growing naturally, the infusion of women appears to have allowed Wii generation sales to remain comparable to PS2 generation sales largely because the increases in the new market have largely offset the economic concerns of the old market (recessions and expensive consoles don’t mix).

On the other hand, it is possible it isn’t that the industry is growing, but rather that people upgrade more quickly as the base of ‘dedicated gamers’ grows.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com

81 Comments

luckey (on 16 September 2009)

Love [url="http://www.ukghdstore.co.uk/"]ghd hair straightener[/url] ? Want to feel gorgeous? Then you have found heaven. Here at [url="http://www.ghdhairsales.co.uk/"]GHD Styler[/url] we are devoted to those who desire flawless hair and want to always look their best.GHD MK4 Kiss, [url="http://www.ghdhairsales.co.uk/GHD-IV-MK4-Kiss.html"]GHD MK4 Kiss[/url] Hair Straighteners On Sale. GHD MK4 Gold, [url="http://www.ghdhairsales.co.uk/GHD-IV-MK4-Gold.html"]GHD MK4 Gold[/url] Hair Straighteners On Sale. Large of discounted [url="http://www.ghdhairsales.co.uk/MK4/"]GHD MK4[/url] Black are provided in our GHD MK4 UK store. When 2009 Christmas day comes, [url="http://www.uschristmasgifts.com" title="christmas gift"]Christmas Gifts[/url] store provide variety christmas gifts for different recipient.

yatou (on 17 March 2009)

Do you know [url=http://www.virgame.com/seal-online-c-104.html]seal cegel[/url] ? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy [url=http://www.virgame.com/seal-online-c-104.html]sealonline cegel[/url] and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these [url=http://www.virgame.com/seal-online-c-104.html]seal online cegel[/url] with his friend.
One day, he give me many [url=http://www.virgame.com/seal-online-c-104.html]cheap seal cegel[/url] and play the game with me.
I came to the bar and found [url=http://www.virgame.com/seal-online-c-104.html]buy seal online cegel[/url] was so cheap. So, I also go to play game with him.

devilguy (on 25 February 2009)

[url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany & Co Silver Jewelry[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany Jewelry[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany Rings[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany Earrings[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Ttiffany Necklaces[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany Bracelet[/url] | [url=http://www.tiffanyhot.com]Tiffany [/url]

submit012 (on 20 February 2009)

I guess so. [url=http://www.tiffanysjewellery.co.uk]tiffany[/url]What's eating you? What happened?,[url=http://www.tiffanyonsale.org/Sets/]Tiffany Sets[/url]Relax. You can count on me.,[url=http://www.tiffanysjewellery.co.uk/jewelry.html]Tiffany jewellery[/url]flirt! you are such a flirt! stop kissing up to him! he doesn't like you at all.,[url=http://www.tiffanysjewellery.co.uk/Necklaces/]Tiffany Necklaces[/url]I can't move.,[url=http://www.tiffanyonsale.org/Sets/]Tiffany Sets[/url]Thanks for coming to help on such a short notice.

mmolichking1 (on 17 February 2009)

wenwen456 (on 05 February 2009)

Final-Fan (on 28 November 2008)

@ TheSource: I'm not sure if god helping you out of a jam counts as "entertainment". Sorry for the late response.

Punisher (on 26 November 2008)

Great analysis like always.

"One other point can be made about the picture above. The great debate over the last two years has been whether Wii is actually drawing in new people to the videogame industry. By performing 23m units better than Game Cube did in each systems first 100 weeks in the three world regions, it is mathematically impossible for Wii to not be drawing in beyond the old Nintendo base. That much every one agrees on."

This debate will only end when Wii passes Nes sales of 61.91 million units.
(Which will happen in before next (fiscal) year is over.)
Btw how many units did Nintendo "predict" to move, before this fiscal end in March '09 ?

@NeoRatt

Just waiting for Nintendo to release new colors, two controller bundle, lower the price, etc...

@porphyrous

"I don't think Wii buyers are motivated by price, since the XBox360 isn't doing significantly more sales with the recent price cut, and the Wii continues to sell out at its launch price. I think the growth from lapsed gamers and women is real."

Yep, it isn't price that drives Wii buyers, it is (Nintendo made) exclusives.

Dunno if i'm "marked/read" as lapsed gamer by having PCWii configuration.

Most of those games on Ps3/360 are coming to Pc at some point so there aren't that many games driving me to buy either.

@murphjp

Heh, rather overused argument(s) there mate.

@MrChi14

This is something that i'm afraid of.

Will new Zelda/Mario/Metroid/Kid Icarus/Wario/etc. be dumbed down so that "casual" gamers will buy them ?

@Nick

As i answered MrChi14

@DirtyP2002

And you sir are XB/360 fanboy

@FPSrules

What...?
"why is the wii being compare to the ps2, even if it does somehow manage to outsell the ps2 overall the wii will never be better than the ps2."

Well, Wii is better than Ps2 in many ways if it outsells Ps2.
-Hardware failure rate is rather big on Ps2 compared to Wii.
-How many Ps2 were bought by same people over again ?

I did buy my first after first Ps2 and it was V3 or V4 if i remember right.
And i did buy my current Ps2 Slimline about year and ½ ago.

As told earlier in this comment section, why Wii doesn't have much good 3rd party games is that most of the developers were caught their pants down on this(Wii selling as good as it is selling).
And even now they only put their 3rd or 4th developing group to make bad ports to the Wii.

@Daddo Splat

Do you mean that Wii can't play Dvd-movies, from hardware wise or software wise ? (It's done by homebrew, even though Nintendo said that firmware update won't do it)

But still great analysis like always.
Keep 'em coming.

NekoSOM (on 25 November 2008)

We all know the source of antipathy for these pissed-off gamers. It comes from the very title of the article: "The Wii Generation." It is very hard for these 'gamers' to accept that they no longer drive the industry. No matter how well Gears of War or Halo or GTA sells, they cannot stop inevitability. Not even third-party developers can stop it. This is the Wii Generation and there's nothing you can do about it. So stop bitching and accept it.

ultimate_123 (on 24 November 2008)

Wow! Great analysis man. Must've took a long time.

TheSource (on 24 November 2008)

All religions are based on entertainment. Would anyone pray if they thought god wasn't capable of miracles/helping/salvation? Thats the gist of what I meant. Those beliefs and stories are entertaining

Final-Fan (on 24 November 2008)

"That's the beauty of entertainment, it evolves with how people want to be entertained so it never really goes out of style. That's why we still [...] have religions based on unchanging entertainment values rather than legality or morality."

Um ... what? Religion is based on entertainment?

"Wii would like to pray" -- sorry folks but I coudn't resist
(@ TheSource - the joke is separate from the question, of course)

TheSource (on 24 November 2008)

Dreamcast was kind of in between the PS1 Gen and PS2 Gen as it launched two years after N64 and two years before Xbox & GC. VGC data for each world region only goes back to the PS2 launch anyway. Besides, it would be unfair to compare three machines to four machines in terms of assessment.

Retrasado (on 24 November 2008)

@shio
was that really a serious question?

Reasonable (on 24 November 2008)

Interesting read. Pity there's not more meat like this on site vs 'it sucks and so do you' type threads...

For me what's most stark for me is how MS is only really seeing a modest increase over XBOX generation, despite continuing to throw money at the console, while essentially Nintendo have stolen Sony's crown.

The real story for me this gen (so far) is the Nintendo/Sony switch.

MS has done well compared to itself but is still far from being a major force in terms of console marketshare, and is clearly locked in for the moment servicing a user base who would probably have focused on PC in an earlier generation for online/graphics focused competitive gaming.

The question for me is how much Sony can manage to reverse their fall vs Nintendo's rise over the remainder of the generation (assuming they can manage to reverse anything of course).

It also makes it clear how damaging it is for PS3 right now to be seen as the alternative HD console to 360, while Wii is clearly taking the former PS2 slot a the must have general family/friends/casual gaming console while bringing in a lot more women and former non-gamers to boot.

bdbdbd (on 24 November 2008)

Good job. I see ioi has been keeping TheSource again chained in his basement.

shio (on 24 November 2008)

Why doesn't this include Dreamcast?

rastari (on 24 November 2008)

@hanzaki a hardcore gamer isn't some spotty nerd who live's in his mother's basement and spends all of his time playing mediocre game's like halo, a hardcore gamer is someone who actually remembers good fps's such ass duke nukem and actually respects innovation and not just an upgrade the ps3 should e the ps.3 and the point of gaming used to be escapism now it appears to be realism and the "hardcore consoles" seem to be flooded with horrible halo clones all in the colour brown, gaming used to be about entertainment and fun for everyone now it's massively elitist and the only reason that you say wii isn't for "hardcore gamers" is because that's what Microsoft and sony want you to believe they are only in it for money and don't give 2 shits about gamers, Nintendo actually made something which everyone can enjoy, microsoft and sony are destroying gaming just to get a few pounds in there pocket correction they have already destoyed gaming and that's evident by the fact that it's all about being "hardcore" now a days and what type of games you play before it used too be about having fun, for me the most hardcore gamer around is my grandma because she can have more fun in 15 minutes of wii sports than most halo fanboys could in 3 hours because there more focused on winning and being the best than actually enjoying there selves and as far as the wii has no hardcore games wtf is a hardcore game? that's completely subjective because i can tell you know it's going to take you longer to get the 121st power star in super mario galaxy than it is to complete halo and as far ass the horrendous graphics goes the wii graphics are infinitely better than the other two consoles put together because the wii actually comes in more than one colour wtf is their obsession with the colour brown??!!??

Hanzaki (on 24 November 2008)

You can prise the Wii as you want, you can sell millions more Wii as PS2, still the good games were on the PS2 and the Ponyz are on the Wii :P

Seriously my main problem with the Wii (aside the horrendous graphics), that the Wii provide games only to the "casual" players. At this time in the PS2 lifetime they were all kind of games, casual and hardcore. All the hardcore games are practically missing on the Wii and (almost) only you can get lame party games, children games, watered down conversions and "internet flash-games quality" games for 50$. And very few hardcore games.

You can see the result. Millions of hardware, millions of software but only a handful (first party) games sells well the others don't.

mick846 (on 23 November 2008)

The people who are saying that the Wii will never be the PS2's equal are correct, for the Wii will of course be greater. Hehehe.... It's really humorous watching the temper tantrum people throw over vidya games. "Argh! It'll never happen! The Wii is a cesspit of hatred and lies! Nintendo is destroying gaming! Nintendo is destroying gaming! The Wii is teh sucksors! PS2 forever and ever. Blah blah blah blah probably something about the 360 on PS3, too"

Comedy gold. Now if only I could find out how many of 'em are viral marketeers and/or fakers.

Daddo Splat (on 23 November 2008)

I see most older people who have a gaming system have a wii for the grandkids some a ps3 for bluray,
but the wii has crossed boundries still there is no question its an inferior product technologically speaking. hell it cant even play a dvd apart from bundles software sales and dvd attach rates would be interesting.

Still last gen the PS2 was the lead platform for games if the wii were that platform no PS3 or 360 would ever sell multiplatform games based on graphics being so watered down.

The 360 is gaining ground on the PS3 and by years end could be 7 million ahead. while the 360 has another 2 years till a succeeding console takes its place and in the end the PS3 might outsell it based on more years being produced I dont see it.

AnthonyW86 (on 23 November 2008)

Looking at all the numbers, Xbox 360 is going to end up last this gen for sure.Wii is in a very good potition with a price still the same as at launch and lots of head room, and even at that price it's selling very good. PS3 has a lot of headroom in price aswell in the future, and a descent amount of AAA titles still coming up. 360 however doesn't have any AAA titles left(except mayby a Halo 3 follow up) and price is about as low as it can go. I mean 360 Arcade is almost as cheap as a Playstation 2 right now!

Kenology (on 23 November 2008)

This is a comparison based on sales. Not which console is "better". Sales are tracked quantitatively... one console being better than the other is not quantitative, it is subjective.

Batman...WTF? (on 23 November 2008)

FPSrules (on 23 November 2008)

why is the wii being compare to the ps2, even if it does somehow manage to outsell the ps2 overall the wii will never be better than the ps2.

ps2 had tremoundous 3rd party support, 3rd partys were making exclusives for it, and was cheap, thats why it won. wii only has half of this, and this is one reason why the wii will never be better. the Wii has almost no 3rd party support, 95% of multiplaform games arent even ported to the wii, ex-GTA4, COD4, Far Cry 2, Fallout 3 all weren't ported, why, 3rd party don't want to make games for it

Kasz216 (on 23 November 2008)

What about Dreamcast?

MozBlue (on 23 November 2008)

A similar comparison of software sales would be interesting to see

Retrasado (on 23 November 2008)

wow some nice crap in here. just digg it and stop griping...

Griffin (on 23 November 2008)

An interesting article, with some nice graphs to display a better picture of how the gens compare to each other. If this gen has taught us anything is that price plays a big role in how consoles have done this gen. The recent 360 price cut has displayed just how much this matters. In 1-2 years sales should be really interesting.

But next gen sales should really take off as the price of tech has already dropped so much, and console makers will no doubt bring a cheap console to the market. They will also no doubt bring better games at launch since this gen had no good games for any system at launch.

Kenology (on 23 November 2008)

@ NYANKS - This site is called VGChartz - as in Videogame Charts - hasn't it always been about sales? And it doesn't matter if Wii gets the same mind share and respect among the snobcore or gaming elite as the PS2 did. If and when the Wii beats the PS2 in LTD sales, that's something you all will just have to live with.

tuoyo (on 23 November 2008)

Lol at "PS3:PS2 price is less of factor than in other regions since Europeans always get ripped off". but very true. Especially in UK

Sullla (on 23 November 2008)

Wonderful feature, Source. It's posts like this that keep me coming back to VGChartz.

Please ignore the ignorant comments that always pop up in these threads. Some people will never accept a situation they don't like, no matter how much evidence is presented to the contrary. 10 years from now, people will reminisce fondly about the Wii generation and only a few bitter diehards will still be muttering about how it destroyed gaming.

Chrizum (on 23 November 2008)

I have to say, this is one amazing piece of work. I love the analysis, it paints a great, and clear picture of way this industry is doing.

TheSource (on 23 November 2008)

I admire strategic decisions that work more than the consoles or companies themselves which is why you never see me saying "Nintendo is brilliant" or "Sony is doomed" because they clearly learn from each other. PS1 and PS2 did everything that was required of them by the market, but arguing that Wii has done the same thing isn't the same as loving Wii. Its just a box after all.

Sky Render (on 23 November 2008)

Looks like we've had a nice session of Wii Bingo here in the comments. Honestly, aren't the excuses starting to wear thin by now? I mean, you can only ignore the elephant in the room for so long.

DirtyP2002 (on 23 November 2008)

TheSource is a Wii-Fanboy.

goddog (on 23 November 2008)

and if the xbox, ps2, and gc had all been launched at the same time things might have been different that generation too. We can make all sorts of assumptions based on real figures, but these alternate scenarios are not a reflection of the world as it stands now.
outside of that with ending total of 45 million for the 360 they are only predicting 2 more year? that seems short to me, but ive bought into the 2012 period with continued sales for 2 years after its replacement is out. I see this as the start of longer generations, to help recover costs and keep devs happy

Nick (on 23 November 2008)

"Nintendo doesn't give a crap about real gamers, and why should they? They're getting far more rich on casuals."

I'm so sick of this elitist bs. Anyone who plays games is a "real" gamer so get over yourself.

Jo21 (on 23 November 2008)

^yep i noticed that too, if they were released the same day in all regions 360 would be doomed from the start.

AnthonyW86 (on 23 November 2008)

@ Hyruken:

That's not true PS3 is indeed doing better than 360 did in the same perio of time as you can clearly see here: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=400

And id did do aswell as ps2 in the first 200 weeks, but the price just stayed to high to this day for ps3 to really take of. 200-300 is the magical price point and if they back it up with say Gran Turismo 5 it will sell like crazy. Really curious if Wii is going to maintain current sales rate, tought that by know it would have fallen back a bid but it's still selling strong. And Nintendo can easily drop price on the wii whenever they please.

TheSource (on 23 November 2008)

Apparently PS3 and Xbox 360 don't either given the way they are getting trounced. If they were as superior as you imply they are price wouldn't be a deterrent given that most hardcore gamers I know spend thousands of dollars on gaming a year.

Most people over 50 still think video games are a fad, so your argument basically comes down to what theirs is, you can't understand the value of the product so you assume its worthless to everyone when it clearly isn't. There will be of course, a change in the wind at some point but that's the nature of entertainment. If a PS3 or Wii was like a chair some outside company would eventually invent a bean bag and a couch and no one would ever buy a chair anymore. That's the beauty of entertainment, it evolves with how people want to be entertained so it never really goes out of style. That's why we still watch 2500 year old plays and have religions based on unchanging entertainment values rather than legality or morality.

MrChi14 (on 23 November 2008)

It will sell the most of all consoles, because they get people who'd never play games, to play them, or at least try them out.

But that explains why people are all buying the same software in mass numbers (Wii Play, Mario Kart Wii)... they're mostly casual gamers who are new to the scene of video gaming. Nintendo doesn't give a crap about real gamers, and why should they? They're getting far more rich on casuals.

murphjp (on 23 November 2008)

Wii does not have enough games for the hardcore gamer. Its a fad, and sooner or later everyone else will realize that.

porphyrous (on 23 November 2008)

trestres says:
"Damn, the Wii is doing just superb, and 3rd party devs keep on ignoring it. I wonder how longer it will take them to realize on what they are missing."

That's the interesting thing. Two things are going on here.

We still have a hangover amongst developers from the original assumption that the Wii would do poorly, so 3rd party development is still lagging, especially on AAA titles.
Developers haven't figured out who Wii gamers are. The cynical view is that Wii gamers are noobs with low quality standards, or games have to be dumbed down for Wii gamers and so are treated, as blogger Sean Malstrom put it, as "retard gamers". Shigeru Miyamoto observed that most 3rd party developers put their 3rd or 4th string developers on Wii projects, while reserving their top talent for XBox360/PS3 projects. Reggie Fils-Aime observed as recently as this week that 3rd party developers are still steering their AAA projects clear of the Wii.

One sales dynamic not reflected in The Source's analysis is the established figure of gamers per household, which one study I read (and for the life of me I wish I could find it again) indicated that XBox360 and PS3 households average about 1.3 gamers, while Wii households average 3.5 gamers. The most likely reason is that both the kids and the parents in family households are playing Wii. This is a great omen for Nintendo, since as those kids grow up and leave home, they're not likely to take the Wii with them, but have to buy their own since Mom and Dad will still be playing.

David V
http://www.familywii.org

porphyrous (on 23 November 2008)

A very interesting article. At the end, you seem to validate a couple of specific strategy points that Nintendo has articulated as goals. Their primary target markets for the Wii were kids, lapsed gamers, and women. You specifically touch on those last two in your article.

A couple of other observations. One is that Microsoft may have painted themselves into a corner. On the one hand, they've dropped the entry level price of the XBox360 to $199. However, that model can't run their new interface, which is at least somewhat targeted at casuals with their Avatars, who are the most likely to buy the entry level model. My opinion is that hardcore gamers, who make up the overwhelming portion of XBox360 buyers, can take or leave Avatars.

For some odd reason, Wii owners are a different breed of gamer from XBox360/PS3. Although the Wii's price is attractive, I don't think Wii buyers are motivated by price, since the XBox360 isn't doing significantly more sales with the recent price cut, and the Wii continues to sell out at its launch price. I think the growth from lapsed gamers and women is real. The former view the idea of motion control as the truer innovation over HD graphics, and the latter have really never been marketed to by anyone other than Nintendo via the DS.

David V
http://www.familywii.org

TheSource (on 23 November 2008)

Neo while Wii is down against PS2 now in Japan so is the entire Wii generation against the PS2 generation in Japan. Its not really a new trend either, the PS1/Sat/N64 gen was 30m+ in Japan compared to ~28m for PS2/GC/Xbox (even including DC its still smaller, and in Japan it came out in 98' so I usually split its sales between the two).

Hyruken (on 23 November 2008)

Awesome report there well written, must have taken a lot of time to gather all that data and present it in the way it has been so very good job

I think now these numbers show the true extent of how badly the PS3 is actually doing. It kills off once and for all any of those views that the PS3 was doing just as good as PS2 or the PS3 was doing better then the 360 over the same period of time. Those are now proven all false. In fact in comparison to the PS2 era andcompared to the 360 the only line to go into negative is the PS3 line and that is miles down there. It would be very interesting to see what the Sony line would looklike without the PS3 numbers on there as i guess it would be near to the Wii right?

As i said these numbers now show the reality of the situation for the PS3. People thinking it will go on to sell xyz after KillZone 2, xyz after White Knight Chronicle are simply being a fanboy with much hope. The only thing now that can save Sony is ironicly Sony and that is by making the PS3 as expensive as a 360. Sony would lose a lot of money from console costs but they would be able to re-coup that in games sales such as how MS are. A $50-$100 price cut will make no difference at all. Especially here in the UK where that would mean it would still cost best part of £300. The next 6 weeks i think will determine second place for good. If the gap returns to and passes 7m then it is over, a small price cut will give a small boost, a big price cut is needed. But Sony said they are trying to make money so question is would they do that? They are making money now, they dont have to chase 2nd place. Doing so means they will lose a lot of cash and it will be a gamble to do so. But again these figures show they have no choice really because if they dont their line which is truely awful will just go from bad to worse.

NeoRatt (on 23 November 2008)

The interesting part I think is that the Wii is starting to fade compared to the PS2 in Japan. Although it is too early to tell, this could be a sign that Wii will start to lose momentum wordwide, and if this generation lasts longer, PS3 and/or 360 may have a chance to gain on lost ground.

But that is just speculation rather then real fact.

alera (on 23 November 2008)

Very interesting there is some intereting data there. Its pretty obvious the wii the going to sell ps2 kind of numbers, to me its very much a system you buy for a couple of games though. I have a wii, ps3 and and a 360 and the 360 gets by far the most use. I have around 10 games for the 360 but only a couple for the wii and 3 or 4 for the ps3.

Since most console sales come at the lower price points (£99 in the UK) its going to be very intereting to see how things pan out. Ninty have no reason to drop the price of the wii as its selling so well anyway, ms have already droped the 36- price and its resulted in a huge improvement in sales.

Sony are now going to have to match the 360 price if they want to acheive the same sort of sales. Can they afford to do it ?

I have said it before but its some fall from grace for the playstation 1 - 3rd in one generation, they just missed the point completely this generation it seems.

Simulacrum (on 23 November 2008)

Like hell I would read that.

woopah (on 23 November 2008)

do you reckon we could get something like this for software?

The Ghost of RubangB (on 23 November 2008)

Interesting how the 6th generation started so much faster and stronger than the 7th generation. Looking back (with this awesome analysis, thanks again to you and your sexy ass), this generation was really slow, boring, and a huge step backwards until the Wii picked up steam.

ECC (on 23 November 2008)

yeah most sites ether act like the Wii doesn't exist or just bash it.

its really sad as they claim to be professionals.

konnichiwa (on 23 November 2008)

The Wii generation I wonder if gamesites are going to call it that way, on gametrailers they even declared that Wii is not a console also when I tried my best to make up their minds tss.

NYANKS (on 23 November 2008)

Good thing we're on Vgchartz, because the only arena in which this comparison is valid is in sales. Wii will most likely never be the PS2's equal in the minds of gamers.

Esa-Petteri (on 23 November 2008)

Wii generation.. lol :)

Retrasado (on 23 November 2008)

Awesome job Source.

C'mon guys. digg it...

Judeophobia (on 23 November 2008)

also PS3, this gens last place competitor (so far) is tracking well ahead of both gamecube and xbox.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=XB&reg3=All&weeks=400

Branko2166 (on 23 November 2008)

@bardicverse
One thing to note though is that the ps2 is selling still and will continue to do so for a while longer. So it's not like it's LTD sales are fixed. PS2 will likely ship ~150million. So the race will be interesting.

shams (on 23 November 2008)

Love those last two graphs, they say so much!

Final-Fan (on 23 November 2008)

Awesome post. I love this kind of comparative info and ate this article up.

One (or three) grammatical quibble(s): "we have 100 weeks of data for Xbox 360, and Wii in all world markets, as well for PS3 in the Americas in Japan."

"we have 100 weeks of data for Xbox 360 (no comma) and Wii in all world markets, as well AS [i]for[/i] PS3 in the Americas AND Japan." ([i]for[/i] is optional)

I hope you're not someone who's offended by this sort of thing. It just bugs me sometimes unless I get it off my chest.

bardicverse (on 23 November 2008)

So, by this data, if its relatively persistent, the Wii is set to beat PS2 totals LTD

rulo_rezn0r (on 23 November 2008)

great great article!
i have a lotof fun reading it

leo-j (on 23 November 2008)

The wii generation...ughh

Sky Render (on 22 November 2008)

I find the generation comparison graphs fascinating. On top of being almost perfect polar opposites in terms of which company is on top and having an almost parallel growth rate, the PS2's overall market penetration at the 100-week mark was very close to the Wii's now, relatively speaking. Even with all of the chaos in the way the industry shapes itself, we still see consistent trends pop up...

Thechalkblock (on 22 November 2008)

Interesting.

Seraphic_Sixaxis (on 22 November 2008)

This was a LONG read, well explained though congrats, but it does sort of biased towards the Wii but w/e.

On the otherhand the news of the PS3 is refreshing aswell, see Sony didnt screw up 100% only 75% and falling. :P

Strategyking92 (on 22 November 2008)

hmmm, so the x360 can get up to 10m more than the xbox? That would be nice growth, and nice news for a (hopefully far away) xbox 720.

Instance56 (on 22 November 2008)

Wii vs GC . Makes it look even better lol.

Commando (on 22 November 2008)

Wii isn't Wii Blue in all the graphs?

crumas2 (on 22 November 2008)

Nice to see a this much raw data in a digestible format. Thanks.

TheSource (on 22 November 2008)

Aprisaiden....Wii is ~5m ahead of PS2 through when both were available in the three regions for 100 weeks. PS2 holidays appear at different times throughout the 100 weeks than Wii holidays so it does fluctuate alot...and rapidly I have to say.

PS3 is 6m ahead of GC through 100 weeks for each console in each region, PS3 was behind through week 35, but has been ahead since and it keeps building. Again, its because PS3 is on pace to do ~30m or more in Europe...and GC never did anything near that anywhere.

W4n9Le (on 22 November 2008)

GO WII~!

marciosmg (on 22 November 2008)

Amazing artcle as always, The Source. I keep learning and learning while having fun :D

Aprisaiden (on 22 November 2008)

@Thesource - i believe the 150 week mark will be very interesting since by then PS3 should of passed GC, 360 should passed Xbox and the Wii will still be on its way to passing PS2 sales...

Ohh and could we get a chart at the end with the difference between Wii-PS2 sales, Xbox-360 sales and PS3-GC sales. Afterall we all know PS3 is selling worse than PS2 and Wii has already outsold GC...

trestres (on 22 November 2008)

Damn, the Wii is doing just superb, and 3rd party devs keep on ignoring it. I wonder how longer it will take them to realize on what they are missing.

NightDragon83 (on 22 November 2008)

gotta love those industry growth/loss charts... Nintendo skyrockets, Sony takes a nosedive, and Microsoft shuffles along almost unchanged.

TheSource (on 22 November 2008)

DMJ - its a comparison of same "time on sale" not "same point in time" which would be where the three systems were on a given day, rather than where they at 10, 20, 40, etc weeks after launch.

SaviorX (on 22 November 2008)

.........That was a lot to absorb. 2009 will be the year where most questions and stances on this "generation" can be put to rest.

DMeisterJ (on 22 November 2008)

Long and hard read... Nice to see how nice PS3 is trending above 360 at the same point in time. Gives hope for the future for the triple.

deathcape (on 22 November 2008)

..the reasons..are most likely a combination of all the above..meaning it's hard to hit them in one spot..wich MS and Sony are trying: cutting prices..

it won't kill the Wii..what about all the OTHER aspects pulling people?

Existing User Log In

New User Registration

Kingdom Come: Deliverance II Announced for PS5, Xbox Series X|S, and PC

Monolith: Requiem of the Ancients Renamed to Astor: Blade of the Monolith

Fabledom Launches May 13 for PC, Later for Consoles

Non-VR Version of Five Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 Headed to PS5 on June 20

The 100 Week Assessment: The Wii Generation vs. the PS2 Generation - News

More Articles

Popular Stories