DFC: PlayStation 4 and Xbox One Will Both Top 100 Million by 2020

by William D'Angelo, posted on 11 February 2014 / 8,504 Views

DFC Intelligence researchers have made a bold prediction. The Wii is the only seventh generation home console to sell 100 million units. DFC has reported to GamesIndustry International that the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will sell more than 100 million units each by 2020. This would be the first time in gaming history that two home consoles have sold more than 100 million units.

The PlayStation 4 is expected to outsell the Xbox One lifetime due to its cheaper price and popularity in Europe. The PlayStation 4 could also become the lead platform for developers in the Western markets, as well as Japan.

DFC Intelligence is also forecasting worldwide video game revenue to increase to $77 billion in 2014. This up from $68 billion in 2013. The gaming industry is expected to continue to grow and be near $100 billion by 2018.


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19 Comments

paulrage2 (on 11 February 2014)

Without Europe and Japan XB1 will never hit 100 million. Sad, but true.


platformmaster918 (on 11 February 2014)

why is it sad? A console should be spread out and sell on its own merits rather than national loyalty.


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cody6695 (on 13 February 2014)

The 360 was close without Japan


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eddlemaistre (on 11 February 2014)

No way, I think XBone will be lucky to hit 80 million.


HylianSwordsman (on 11 February 2014)

We'll all be laughing at this prediction years from now. PS4 is the only console that even stands a chance at selling 100 million.


AnthonyW86 (on 11 February 2014)

If Xbox One makes it to 100 million by 2020 PS4 should be there by 2018 or even earlier. I don't think Xbox One will make it to 100 million though.


Rogerioandrade (on 12 February 2014)

This is delusional. No console of this generation will reach 100 million units sold. PS4 may reach 80-90 million in 6/7 years, but with the lack of interest of the general public with gaming dedicated devices, this generation will see lower sales, as it has been happening since 2010


drake_tolu (on 12 February 2014)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, ok PS4, for me sold even 110/120 milion, but X1 sold 100 milion is IMPOSSIBLE, maximum 50 milion...will stand in the middle to XBOX and XBOX 360.


Serious_frusting (on 12 February 2014)

PS4 will be the only one. the xbone has zero chance


RedInker (on 12 February 2014)

Cant see the X1 selling 100 million. PS4 is dominating here. I dont know anyone with an X1.


ICStats (on 11 February 2014)

Maybe PS4 but no sign that XB1 would break 100M.


fatslob-:O (on 11 February 2014)

There's just one thing that they haven't learned yet despite predicting that the WII would be the only console to hit 100 million and it could be that they don't know that this generation is a DECLINE therefore the only console that stands a chance to even sell a 100 million is the PS4 even factoring in the 10 year long generation.


FreeMan4096 (on 12 February 2014)

Every new generation sold cca. 25 percent more than previous generation. Gamecube times included. 100 m should be no problem for ps4, everybody knows that. I'm sure Sony is expecting smth closer to 150m, actualy. These analysts are funny. some douchy white-noses from the office are telling us gamers what's gonna be popular lol.


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TurboElder (on 11 February 2014)

I hope that we will see PS5 by 2018.


Legendary_W (on 11 February 2014)

The article should be corrected, I believe. It should clarify that it would be "the first time that two home consoles have sold more than 100 million units"but in the same generation.


3sexty (on 11 February 2014)

what makes people so sure about this not happening just after 2 months of launching (of both consoles). In all honesty anything and I mean anything could happen between now and 2020 and this will come down to games, possible price reductions, marketing, financial health of the parent company etc etc. I remember the x360 and ps3 launch where people just like some of the above were saying the PS3 will end up with 100m plus and the 360 would be a repeat pf the original xbox - at a poultry 25million. Did that happen just because they said so, or that they were hopeful of it happening?? No..Just look what happened there - almost a tie at 80m. sorry I need a little more convincing than that :)

PS: the whole without Europe and Japan arguement was around for the 360 vs ps3 era too. Again, what was the end result?? TBH Japan is becoming a non factor in console gamaing. It is not 2002 when this did matter. The market for non handheld consoles has shrunk significantly. Demographics plays a big part in this: aging population etc etc


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3sexty (on 11 February 2014)

what makes people so sure about this not happening just after 2 months of launching (of both consoles). In all honesty anything and I mean anything could happen between now and 2020 and this will come down to games, possible price reductions, marketing, financial health of the parent company etc etc. I remember the x360 and ps3 launch where people just like some of the above were saying the PS3 will end up with 100m plus and the 360 would be a repeat pf the original xbox - at a poultry 25million. Did that happen just because they said so, or that they were hopeful of it happening?? No..Just look what happened there - almost a tie at 80m. sorry I need a little more convincing than that :)

PS: the whole without Europe and Japan arguement was around for the 360 vs ps3 era too. Again, what was the end result?? TBH Japan is becoming a non factor in console gamaing. It is not 2002 when this did matter. The market for non handheld consoles has shrunk significantly. Demographics plays a big part in this: aging population etc etc


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Justagamer (on 18 February 2014)

There's enough of a market for both to achieve it.


narutokuro (on 16 February 2014)

What I don't think any of you guys are considering is that China is about to allow consoles in their country. China has a billion "+" households. If they only get 10% of that those numbers in the article will be more than right.


freedquaker (on 15 February 2014)

As of year 2020, my XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178350&page=1#


zuvuyeay (on 12 February 2014)

and i thought we were going back to be a niche pastime


ThatDanishGamer (on 12 February 2014)

Wedbush forecast 45.2 million PS4 and 32.6 million xbox' by the end of 2016. http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/02/12/wedbush-predicts-12-million-ps4-sold-this-year-9-million-xbox-one-3-million-wii-u/


binary solo (on 12 February 2014)

These guys must have gone to the Pachter School of Video Game Predictionisation. 100 million apeice? Lol. I don't think either will. Meanwhile more serious analysts have been predicting a shrinking of the home console market. I guess we'll see who's right. Though technically if PS4bone sells 200 million and Wii U bombs terribly (like Gamecube terrible) then that will actually be a shrink in the home console market. So I guess it's possible for both to be true.


Shadow1980 (on 12 February 2014)

While they both likely won't go over 100 million, I do think combined they'll go over 200 million. With Nintendo proving to be a less formidable force this time around, that opens the door for Sony and Microsoft to improve their collective lot. The XBO's problem is that Xbox is not as strong of a global brand, and the majority of Xbox sales have been in North America. Even with all the advantages the 360 had (one-year head start, lower price, etc.), and even with the UK more closely resembling the U.S. market, it still couldn't beat the PS3 in Europe. It was also a very, very distant third in Japan. With the PS4 and XBO launching effectively simultaneously, and with the PS4 having the price advantage and no significant disadvantages, it's clear Sony has shed the things that held the PS3 back, and the PS4 stands a very good chance of widening the PlayStation-Xbox gap. Unless the XBO gets a price cut or something else that stimulates sales to the degree the March 2008 price cut boosted sales of the 360 in Europe, it's possible said region could go 2-to-1 in Sony's favor. Europe has always been PlayStation Country, and that's hard to fight, but MS could potentially narrow the gap, even if they'll likely never close it. As for Japan, well, they can go ahead and write that off as a loss. Unless they can secure some major JRPGs again as exclusives, the XBO may struggle to pass a million; Japanese gamers like Japanese hardware, and thus the PS4 is destined to win this generation there. MS's best bet is America, but gamers in this region are collectively not devoted to any one brand, and they'll go wherever they think the best value is. It's a close race now, but we're only three months into the latest console war, and the tide can change drastically and unexpectedly in the incredibly mercenary U.S. market. With the right games and the occasional price cut to stimulate sales, it could pull ahead of the PS4 in America. Then again, Sony could turn around and follow suit with a price cut of their own. But if the XBO is to pass 100 million, it will need to dominate North America and it will need to greatly narrow the gap between it and the PS4 in Europe. I think the XBO will do at least as well as the 360 in the long run, maybe ending at around 80-90 million units, but with PlayStation being the stronger global brand I see the PS4 pulling at least 50% more sales than the PS3. At minimum I think it'll do around 120 million and may even come close to PS2 numbers if it does well enough. Of course, I'm not willing to bet on that, as making long-term predictions of specific sales numbers based on sales in the earliest months of the generation is complete guesswork. But I am confident in at least predicting that total hardware sales this generation will compare favorably to the last generation, and that the PS4 will come in first and will likely sell noticeably better than the PS3.


Shadow1980 (on 12 February 2014)

Sorry for the wall of text. There was supposed to be paragraph breaks, but I guess the comments section for articles isn't designed for anything more than short responses.


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binary solo (on 12 February 2014)

Dude, you give good analysis, but try to have less verbal diarrhoea while you're doing it.


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Shadow1980 (on 12 February 2014)

Yeah, yeah. I forget we live in the era of Twitter, "TL;DR," and increasingly short attention spans. Unfortunately, I'm not good at delivering soundbites, and it's not enough for me to to say "I think this." I have to explain why I came to that conclusion. Besides, it's not like you have to read what I type.


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