Nintendo Releases July-September Results, Wii Forecast Raised, Wii > N
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 30 October 2008 / 3,870 Views
Nintendo Raises Wii Projection
Jacob Mazel
Nintendo has issued its earning release following the Sony and Microsoft releases of the last week. As expected, Wii and DS continue to sell quite well. Nintendo now puts Wii shipments worldwide at 34.55m through September 30, 2008 in line with the sell through of 32.77m figure through September 26 on Vgchartz. DS shipments have now reached 84.33m worldwide, which compares nicely to 81.56m sell through DS had worldwide on the same date.
Nintendo raised Wii shipment projections for the year ending March 2009 by 1m to 27.5m. If Nintendo hits its current projection, worldwide Wii shipments will be 51.95m units on March 31 2009 alongside shipments of 101.1m DS portables. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo also provides a shipment breakdown for software and hardware by region and platform.
DS Up to Date Shipment Figures
Through September 30, 32.93m DS portables have been shipped to “Others”. About 5m less, 27.63m have been shipped to the Americas. Japan DS shipments now stand at 23.71m. That means nearly four out of ten DS units have gone to “Others” since it launched.
DS shipments of software stand at 454.63m through September 30. With the holiday quarter coming up, and NES and Game Boy software shipments only reaching 500m, DS is primed to take over as Nintendo’s most successful software driver ever. It is especially likely since 48.43m units of DS software shipped in July to September.
The tie ratios, by shipments, through September 2008 and in millions are as follows:
|
Area |
DS HW |
DS SW |
SW/HW |
|
J |
23.71 |
128.75 |
5.43 |
|
A |
27.63 |
159.59 |
5.78 |
|
O |
32.99 |
166.28 |
5.04 |
|
World |
84.33 |
452.62 |
5.37 |
Through June 2008, the tie ratio worldwide was 5.24 per 77.54m DS portables. It looks as though the ratio has yet to stop growing.
Wii Up to Date Shipment Figures
Through September 30, 15.19m Wiis have been shipped to the Americas. In “Others” Nintendo has shipped 12.45m Wiis. Japan stands at about half that with 6.91m Wiis shipped. With 34.55m Wiis shipped worldwide, 11 out of every 25 Wiis have gone to the Americas through September. Wii has also officially passed Nintendo 64 software and hardware shipments (32.93m) to becoming Nintendo’s most successful console in over a decade.
Wii shipments of software stand at 229.85m worldwide. Nintendo 64 software shipments petered out 224m and Game Cube software shipments topped out at 208 m last quarter. Note that at 40m DS portables shipped worldwide DS software stood only at 189m. Wii is likely to easily surpass whatever software total DS reaches. This is even clearer looking at the Wii tie ratios by region which are once again presented by shipments, through September 2008, and in millions.
|
Area |
Wii HW |
Wii SW |
SW/HW |
|
J |
6.91 |
26.76 |
3.87 |
|
A |
15.19 |
122.25 |
8.05 |
|
O |
12.45 |
80.84 |
6.49 |
|
World |
34.55 |
229.85 |
6.65 |
Nintendo has very healthy attach rates for Wii in the west, particularly in the Americas. If the current attach rate holds up when Wii reaches DS level penetration worldwide it is going to be an absolutely massive software ecosystem given that the only place where Wii software sells less than DS software is Japan, and Japan is the smallest of the three regions.
The worldwide Wii attach rate through June 2008 was 6.37 on 29.62m Wiis shipped, so there should be ongoing improvement for the next couple of years.
Other Notes:
Nintendo also managed to ship a few more Game Boy Advances. Through June 2008, a total of 81.24m Game Boy Advances had been shipped. As of September 2008, Nintendo has shipped 81.36m. Game Boy Advance software shipments grew to 377.13m this quarter from 376.94m last quarter. The tie ratio for Game Boy Advance stands at 4.63, paltry compared to both DS and Wii.
Here is how Wii and DS are trending compared to each other and the rest of the industry through the first two years in aligned launch and to date with PS3 and Wii projections from Nintendo and Sony added in parentheses:
First Two Years:
|
|
Pre |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q5 |
Q6 |
Q7 |
Q8 |
|
Wii |
0 |
3.19 |
5.84 |
9.27 |
13.17 |
20.13 |
24.45 |
29.62 |
34.55 |
|
X360 |
0 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
5 |
5.9 |
10.4 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
13.4 |
|
PS3 |
0 |
1.68 |
3.61 |
4.32 |
5.63 |
10.53 |
12.85 |
14.41 |
16.84 |
|
DS |
0 |
2.84 |
5.27 |
6.65 |
8.83 |
14.43 |
16.73 |
21.27 |
26.82 |
To Date:
|
|
Q9 |
Q10 |
Q11 |
Q12 |
Q13 |
Q14 |
Q15 |
Q16 |
|
Wii |
|
(51.95) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X360 |
17.7 |
19 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
PS3 |
|
(22.85) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DS |
35.61 |
40.29 |
47.27 |
53.64 |
64.79 |
70.6 |
77.54 |
84.33 |
Shipment market share by quarter for the current consoles:
|
|
Dec 05' |
Mar 06' |
Jun 06' |
Sept 06' |
Dec 06' |
Mar 07' |
Jun 07' |
Sep 07' |
Dec 07' |
Mar 08' |
Jun 08' |
Sept 08' |
|
Wii |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
20.9% |
28.7% |
36.8% |
40.9% |
41.6% |
43.4% |
46.0% |
46.8% |
|
360 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
68.1% |
53.6% |
46.0% |
41.6% |
36.6% |
33.8% |
31.6% |
30.4% |
|
PS3 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
11.0% |
17.7% |
17.2% |
17.5% |
21.8% |
22.8% |
22.4% |
22.8% |
Nintendo shows no signs of slowing down as it reaches the 50% shipment mark as it stands at 46.8% market share through September with Wii, vs. 30.4% for Xbox 360, and 22.8% for PS3. Despite all this, Nintendo will likely profit less for the year ending March 2009 because of a strong yen.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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@Final-Fan stop riding the hate machine and go play SSBB or any other game produced by Nintendo. Just wait till the good 3rd party games start rolling in. Face it Nintendo is making mad money and no hating will slow them down.
@FishyJoe: Obviously the games they buy constantly are collecting dust too. In fact, at this point I'm surprised nobody is making a business out of this. Nintendo products are such dust magnets that it would make cleaning the room a lot easier to keep a Wii game in hard-to-dust rooms and just clean the dust off of that every once in a while, while the rest of the room stays dust-free. GENIUS!
Considering this time of the year are "slow" months but yet Wii sells around 400+k each onths, it really can't be that hard to sell 650k in the next few months.
If you recall several weeks of very low US sales numbers for the Wii during the summer. I think it's safe to say that Ninty has been stockpiling for a massive Christmas blow-out alot of retailers will be bundling and the attach rate is going to skyrocket. 16M between now and March, walk in the park.
Jimmyboy: Nintendo produce 2,4 million Wiis a month now, but I don't know how long ago it started.
Mmm, I'm more interested in the company that takes home 10c of every Wiimote sold versus Nintendo themselves at the moment. I'm also a little frustrated that picking up wii fit may be a challenge this christmas.
The original Game Boy shipped 118m. The report on Next Gen saying DS topped Game Boy is wrong if you look at Nintendo's shipment documents. The ranking by shipments is GB>DS>GBA>NES>SNES>Wii>N64>GC
Does anyone know how many Wiis are being produced a month? Plus, the DS is the most sold Nintendo system, which is supposed to be the first to cross the 100 million mark for N. I thought Game Boy Advance would do that- it's only 18.64 million away, so if the DS, and the PSP hadn't come out, maybe it would have.
Nintendo is claiming it will average more than 3 million a month for 6 months is absolutely insane.
@Red4ADevil The Wii will pass the SNES in hardware shipments by the end of this fiscal year. So March 31, 09. Now, if you said NES, then I would agree it will take a while, as that should happen around July 09, which wouldn't get reported until the September reports roll in.
Another great week for ninty. now off to beat SNES sales, may take a while
@Kantor, Optimistic? I was going to say conservative....the DS has consistently performed at a level capable of moving 20M units by March. For it to miss that mark would be more noteworthy than if it makes it.
@ Kantor They sold over 16 million over the same period last year with massive sellouts. It can sell better if they can supply more. Also, they're launching the DSi in Japan in this period.
I say that's a little optimistic. The DS is going to sell 20 million units by March?
Core or not, the Wii is projected to sell 200 million units of software. That is mindblowing. I don't know how people can claim with a straight face the Wii is just collecting dust for people when it's selling software like gangbusters.
It's incredible how each week the Wii % is raising (today at 47.4%), been around 0.1% more of the total market share each 2 weeks. Congrats Ninty !
if 2009 can prove core games can sell on wii i could see nintendo being strong for a while (until the next time they fuck up)
Impressive numbers, that's totally fur sure. God who'd have thunk Nintendo would bounce back THIS strong???
Massive attach rates for the DS and Wii. The Wii may end up with the highest attach rate for a console that sold the most hardware in its generation (ie higher than 2600, NES, SNES, PS1, PS2)
What is just astounding, is that Wii has NOT yet completed its 2nd year on the market. The irony with the PS3, is that its doing best in the market that it launched last in. They needed to delay the global launch by another 3-6 months, and get the software right.
Wii>N64? More like N64>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Wii. Oh wait you were talking about sales. My Bad.
Great work as always, Source. A couple things stand out to me: - If anyone still believed the "Wii doesn't sell software myth", these numbers kill that idea dead in the water. Wii tie ratio of over 8 in Americas is outstanding. Only in Japan are things subpar. Really impressive that Wii outsold lifetime software sales for N64 and Gamecube in under two years. - 52m shipped by end of March 09 implies about 50m sell-through here at VGChartz. That means Nintendo is expecting to sell roughly 16m Wiis in the next six months. Or, put another way, that's about 650,000 Wiis per week! Wow. - PS3 actually lost marketshare in the June 08 quarter. Didn't realize that. With Wii still skyrocketing in market share, and showing no signs of slowing down, it's going to be awful tough for Sony to get much past 25%.
Wow. If Nintendo increased their shipments, they are sure to exceed it. They are normally conservative with their numbers. The Wii is on track to outsell the DS. After 5 years, the Wii will be no foreigner to 100m units. The attach rates will be impressive as well, despite what the industry keeps forcing us to not believe.
Still, if you see the change in Wii Total Hardware from Q4 to Q8 you see an increase of 162% "Quarter to Long Quarter" (because of increased production). This would mean, taken at face value, at least a 54% (1/3 of total seen in the past since the production increase in effect will not be enough and not much stockpiling has been in effect) increase in sales from Q8 to Q10 (due to the end of the year push but reduced because of Wii shortages even with the increased production since 100% of all production would have to be allocated and sold between october- december due to black friday-christmas in the US and "christmas" in the rest of the world and restocking coming, at the earliest, on the 2nd week of January in a reduced effort). In effect this puts the Wii worldwide sales at 53.20 million, meaning Nintendo is actually under-projecting Wii hardware sales. Still, anythin is possible with the economic crash in effect.
@EdEN... that's quite a block of text, you might want to re-post that with a little edit so it's easier to read. From the gist of it though I think you are saying Wii sales are going to exceed Nintendo's projections by a long shot.... it's simply not possible for them to have shipped 53.2 million by the 2nd week in January, the production rate is not high enough.
wii software in 2009 is gunna be simply outstanding. i suspect animal crossing and wii music will still be selling strong. The your gunna have wii sports resort as well as the strong third party and first party support
Goo that is a lot for DS and Wii. Man if Wii is able to hit 50 million by March 2009 then that is ungodly haha. But going to be a huge holiday season for Ninty.
Lots of interesting information we have here. I'm not so sure the Wii will reach its intended target of almost 52 million units by the end of March '09. If it does then that'll be crazy as the Wii would have more than outsold the PS3 AND 360 COMBINED WW.
wow, Wii shipments are incredible. Anyone who thinks the Wii won't reach 100m units is out right crazy. Outpacing the DS by 10m units within 10 quarters is pretty dang impressive.
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