2008: A Look Back at The 1st 1/2 & a Look Ahead to the 2nd 1/2 and Bey

by Jacob Mazel, posted on 05 July 2008 / 6,030 Views

Jacob Mazel

 

Summarizing the First Half of 2008

 

The first twenty six weeks of 2008 saw a flurry of major game releases. Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3/360), Mario Kart (Wii), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Wii), Monster Hunter Portable 2G (PSP), Wii Fit (Wii), Devil May Cry 4 (360/PS3), Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3), and Pokemon Ranger (DS) were the main blockbusters for the first six months of 2008. Compare that list to early 2007, when Wii Play (Wii), God of War 2 (PS2), Guitar Hero II (360), Super Paper Mario (Wii), Wario Ware: Smooth Moves (Wii), Motorstorm (PS3), Yoshi’s Island (DS), Crackdown (360), and Lost Planet (360) were the big releases and it is fairly clear just from top game releases alone why hardware sales are improved from last year. In fact, of the big releases in the first six months of 2007, only Wii Play is still moving decent numbers in all three regions worldwide. The big releases in the first six months of 2008, especially Grand Theft Auto IV, Mario Kart, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Wii Fit and Monster Hunter Portable 2G – should continue to have strong legs for years.

 

So far in 2008, a total of ten games have sold over 1 million units in the Americas. That compares to four million selling games in Japan and 11 in the region ‘Others’ in 2008. The most universal hits appear to be Mario Kart Wii, Wii Play, Wii Fit and Wii Sports (bundled in the west) since the games appear in the top ten lists for all three regions. Super Smash Brothers Brawl and both versions of Grand Theft Auto IV are in the top ten for 2008 in two of the three world regions as well, Japan and the Americas, and the Americas and Others respectively. Since the Others region includes everything from Europe to South Africa to Hong Kong to Australia it is the least accurate/complete of the three lists but it still provides an excellent idea of what is selling outside the Americas and Japan.

 

Game (Americas Top Sellers Ja-Ju 08')

Console

Publisher

Sales

1

Super Smash Bros Brawl

Wii

Nintendo

3,796,375

2

Grand Theft Auto IV

Xbox 360

Take Two

3,681,931

3

Mario Kart Wii

Wii

Nintendo

2,471,311

4

Wii Play

Wii

Nintendo

2,151,892

5

Grand Theft Auto IV

PS3

Take Two

1,902,255

6

Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare

Xbox 360

Activision

1,592,922

7

Wii Fit

Wii

Nintendo

1,184,239

8

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2

Xbox 360

Ubisoft

1,136,999

9

Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock

Wii

Activision

1,109,407

10

Super Mario Galaxy

Wii

Nintendo

1,104,287

 

 

Game (Japan Top Sellers Ja-Ju 08')

Console

Publisher

Sales

1

Monster Hunter Portable 2G

PSP

Capcom

2,342,195

2

Super Smash Bros Brawl

Wii

Nintendo

1,736,408

3

Mario Kart Wii

Wii

Nintendo

1,473,824

4

Wii Fit

Wii

Nintendo

1,407,350

5

Pokemon Ranger: Battonage

DS

Nintendo

575,786

6

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriot

PS3

Konami

573,334

7

Wii Sports*

Wii

Nintendo

544,776

8

Mario Party DS

DS

Nintendo

486,549

9

Wii Play

Wii

Nintendo

391,210

10

Musou Orochi Maou Sairin

PS2

Koei

378,151

 

Game (Others Top Sellers Ja-Ju 08')

Console

Publisher

Sales

1

Grand Theft Auto IV

PS3

Take Two

2,130,260

2

Mario Kart Wii

Wii

Nintendo

2,074,548

3

Grand Theft Auto IV

Xbox 360

Take Two

1,861,996

4

Wii Play

Wii

Nintendo

1,790,454

5

Wii Fit

Wii

Nintendo

1,756,021

6

Brain Training

DS

Nintendo

1,517,071

7

More Brain Training

DS

Nintendo

1,322,967

8

Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games

DS

Nintendo

1,308,282

9

Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games

Wii

Nintendo

1,302,604

10

Gran Turismo 5: Prologue

PS3

Sony

1,179,285

 

Just from the software totals a couple things are clear. For instance the strongest PSP region right now is clearly Japan. In the Americas and Others, no PSP software was even close to the top ten. Others is clearly the strongest PS3 region – as two of the three non-Nintendo platform titles were on PS3. PS3 top software however was represented in all three territories, as was Wii software. Xbox 360 continues to have almost no presence in Japan, and only Grand Theft Auto IV on Xbox 360 was able to chart in the top ten sales in Others. DS looks like it is now strongest in Others, followed by Japan and then the Americas. Wii is well represented in all three regions, with a plurality or a majority of the top ten in each.

 

Hardware sales roughly follow the same trends as the top software trends. In 2008, hardware sales have been quite strong, with six platforms selling over 3 million units in just a half a year.

 

Platform

Total

America

Japan

Others

Wii

9,263,120

3,924,967

1,722,185

3,615,968

PS3

4,966,312

1,688,839

559,878

2,717,595

Xbox 360

3,695,503

1,699,753

78,673

1,917,077

PSP

5,859,353

1,709,573

2,099,835

2,049,945

DS

11,263,085

3,652,954

1,644,464

5,965,667

PS2

3,405,895

1,373,945

266,270

1,765,680

 

More specifically, worldwide sales have broken down as follows, with the first half ‘floor’ and ‘roof’ weeks emphasized in purple and green:

 

Date

Wii

PS3

Xbox 360

5-Jan

454,784

303,480

226,363

12-Jan

213,907

200,486

157,508

19-Jan

275,457

183,063

120,502

26-Jan

306,655

190,351

120,864

2-Feb

312,220

199,737

115,898

9-Feb

380,604

190,050

134,913

16-Feb

239,176

180,175

127,738

23-Feb

270,013

186,128

131,035

1-Mar

374,718

198,423

141,245

8-Mar

248,262

174,299

119,631

15-Mar

335,478

157,785

128,447

22-Mar

444,736

190,565

171,628

29-Mar

279,335

212,985

150,784

5-Apr

375,834

185,684

125,890

12-Apr

315,449

156,284

118,998

19-Apr

407,772

160,513

119,600

26-Apr

350,577

177,621

144,215

3-May

679,222

300,179

239,350

10-May

365,030

184,064

164,797

17-May

302,678

159,549

142,215

24-May

503,596

147,484

132,932

31-May

360,041

141,325

140,585

7-Jun

325,947

146,181

135,696

14-Jun

296,712

311,836

129,490

21-Jun

342,103

169,094

124,253

28-Jun

502,764

158,971

130,926

 

The above sales are distributed like so, with Wii clearly selling far more than what Xbox 360 and PS3 are capable of selling most weeks.

 

 

2008: Contextualizing the Record Breaker

 

Regionally, its fair to say to say 20,000 units a week is ‘viable’ for hardware sales in Japan, while 50,000 unit weeks in the Americas and 50,000 unit weeks in Others would be seen as ‘viable’ as well. However, with a couple regional exceptions (360 and PS2 in Japan) all the platforms are clearly still viable worldwide. Since 2008 is trending above previous peak years in 2002 and 2007 for the industry and should be the second highest sales year, or the peak sales year for Xbox 360+Wii+PS3 sales, the sales standard has to be higher than ~120k/week per platform (~6.25m/year per platform). Over 31 million (then) current generation consoles (PS2, Xbox and GC) were sold in 2002, an average rate of almost 600,000 units per week for each week of 2002. Also recognize that in 2007, nearly 32 million current generation consoles (Wii, PS3, 360) were sold worldwide. That means since the industry is growing we should realistically expect that on average over 600,000 Wiis, PS3s and Xbox 360s will be sold each week of 2008 since it is a peak/near peak year. Sure enough, in the last week nearly 800,000 Wiis, PS3s and Xbox 360s were sold. The 2008 average to date, over the course of twenty six weeks for Wiis, Xbox 360s and PS3s sold is slightly over 689,000 units.

 

Console

Total

08' Wk Avg

Wii

9,263,120

385,963

PS3

4,966,312

206,930

Xbox 360

3,695,503

153,979

America

08' Wk Avg

Wii

3,924,967

163,540

PS3

1,688,839

70,368

Xbox 360

1,699,753

70,823

Japan

08' Wk Avg

Wii

1,722,185

71,758

PS3

559,878

23,328

Xbox 360

78,673

3,278

Others

08' Wk Avg

Wii

3,615,968

150,665

PS3

2,717,595

113,233

Xbox 360

1,917,077

79,878

 

So far, 2008 has seen an exceptionally strong first half for current generation machines, with nearly 18 million current generation consoles already sold, compared to nearly 32 million current generation consoles in all of 2007 . Hardware sales for this round of machines are going to easily top the PS2 generation peak. That is not particularly surprising given that in 2007, when Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 were all still ramping up the total hardware sold was already comparable to 2002, the top year for combined PS2, Xbox and GC sales. Given that total hardware sales for a year tend to equal a 5:2 or 3:1 ratio of first half sales, 45 to 55 million current generation consoles sold in 2008 is a pretty realistic, if staggering total for what to expect in 2008. If hardware sales do end up 45-55 million for the Wii-generation machines in 2008, then the pattern of when top sales will occur will be drastically different from last generation, with later and stronger peak years. It could look something like this estimate (though it is obviously way too early to know how the generation will end exactly). Year one in 2000 for the PS2 generation (PS2-Xbox-GC), year one is 2005 for the Wii generation (360-Wii-PS3):

 

 

A Look at the Second Half of 2008

 

Looking ahead to the rest of 2008 it is unlikely that sales in the second half will grow as much as in the second of 2007 simply because of the magnitude of games released in early 2008 that will sell or have sold 5+ million copies. To understand what kind of sales the second half of 2008 will see, we can look at the sales 2007 totals vs. the first half of 2007 sales as basic predictor. Below is a quick summary of first half sales vs. second half sales in 2007:

 

1) Wii sold 5.943m in the first six months/twenty six weeks of 2007. It went on to sell 10.305m in the latter half of 2007. In other words, the first twenty six weeks accounted for a mere ~36.5% of total Wii sales in 2007 .

2) PS3 sold 2.512m in the first six months of 2007. It went on to sell 5.129m in the latter half of 2007. The PS3 sales rate of increase in the first half to the second was larger than the Wii rate of increase on the strength of two value adding adjustments – including ‘more stuff’ at the same price, and knocking the price of PS3 from $600/$500 in the first half of 2007 to $500/$400 in the second half of 2007. One other major advantage is that PS3 was out in Europe, its strongest region, for the entire second half of 2007. Overall, the first six months of 2007 accounted for only ~32.9% of PS3 sales in 2008

3) Xbox 360 sold 2.397m in the first six months of 2007. It went on to sell 5.507m in the second half of 2007. Microsoft had waited nearly two years to drop the price of Xbox 360 in the USA, where the machine sees most of its sales, and as a result Xbox 360 saw the largest increase from the first half to the second half of 2007, though Halo 3 helped a bit as well as it was the only console to see the top selling game from its predecessor get a sequel in 2007 (since sequels to GC’s Smash Brothers and PS2’s GTA were not released until 2008). Xbox 360 sold only ~30.3% of its final 2007 total in the first half of 2007 .

 

Weekly sales show the points above even more pointedly:

Average Sales

Wii

PS3

Xbox 360

wk 1 to 26 07'

228,569

96,628

92,209

wk 1 to 52 07'

312,462

146,941

152,000

wk 1 to 26 08'

356,272

191,012

142,135

wk 1 to 52 08'

?????

?????

?????

 

Even with holiday sales included in the average for 2007 weeks, Wii and PS3 are outperforming their pace for all of 2007. If 2008 sees normal holiday boosts, both Wii and PS3 average weekly sales rates could finish the year at rates two to three times higher than the sales levels from the 1st half of 2007. Xbox 360 sales are just off weekly 2007 sales which is a strong performance for the console as well. However, to show comparable strength to Sony in a year where momentum seems to moving a bit away from Xbox 360 another price drop is necessary to keep Xbox 360 sales in the first half around ~30% like they were last year. Ignoring differences between last year and 2008 for a moment, and using the percentages that the first half of 2007 accounted for in all total 2007 sales, final sales for 2008 would look like this:

 

1st 1/2 07'

2nd 1/2 07'

1st ½ 07’ Sales/Tot 07’ Sales

Wii

5,942,801

10,305,204

0.3657557

PS3

2,512,322

5,128,596

0.3287985

Xbox 360

2,397,432

5,506,570

0.3033187

1st 1/2 08'

2nd 1/2 08'

2008 Sales Estimate

Wii

9,263,070

16,062,767

25,325,837

PS3

4,966,312

10,138,114

15,104,426

Xbox 360

3,695,503

8,488,060

12,183,563

However, there are five major differences from 2007:

 

1) Microsoft will drop the price of the Xbox 360 in the USA after similar drops around the world earlier in 2008. Xbox 360 saw a price cut last year in the USA as well. However, this year Sony is unlikely to respond or initiate price drops because it is focused on profitability and will likely remain competitive with Microsoft even if Xbox 360 gets an up swing in sales in each of the three markets. The logic on Sony’s part in 2008 is that if PS3 is outselling Xbox 360 (and it has outsold 360 in 2008 by ~1.3m) when it is already more expensive than Xbox 360, the pressure is on Microsoft. For much of last year, PS3 was getting outsold by Xbox 360 worldwide despite stronger sales in Europe and Japan. Wii doesn’t need a price cut, and it didn’t need one last year either.

2) The big releases in early 2008 have kept the ‘floor’ for minimal worldwide sales significantly higher for PS3 (140k in 2008 vs. 50k in 2007) and for Xbox 360 (115k in 2008 vs. 65k in 2007). However, the flipside to that is that the ‘roof’ for maximum sales to grow has probably been limited by the relative strength of the first half of 2008 compared to a normal, less blockbuster filled first halves. Holiday sales will be the reason for the limited ‘roof’. November & December sales will still be enormous to be sure – but as a percentage increase over sales from the earlier months the second half increases should be down from last year…except for Wii because:

3) The Wii floor is up, but we’re still not really sure where the roof is. Nintendo has sold over 500,000 Wiis in three weeks this year already. The floor in the first half of 2007 was 150,000 and the roof was a supply constrained 300,000. In the second half of 2007, Wii only topped 500,000 six times. It’s not entirely unreasonable to expect Wii sales to routinely hit 400,000 in the second half given the incoming production increases, with six weeks of sales over 1,000,000 units per week if supply holds. The floor will likely be ~300,000 units per week in the second half, but we still don’t know what the roof is for Wii demand. DS has shown that a platform can sell about 600,000/week for a year. But DS was half the price of Wii when it reached its peak, so it’s entirely possible the Wii peak will be above the DS peak by a significant margin when it becomes cheaper.

4) PS2 is finally on its last legs. That isn’t to say its dead. It isn’t dead, but it’s not going to outsell PS3 and Xbox 360 this year by 20% like it did last year either. It’s difficult to put a number on how many PS2 users are buying Wiis, PS3s and 360s in 2008, but my hunch is that this is the first year more than ~10 million PS2 owners are buying the new consoles. The current generation of machines is likely currently composed of some early PS2 owners (pre-holiday 2001) and the majority of Xbox and Gamecube owners. As PS2 owners finally run out of content to play, they will buy new machines. After slow declines in 2005-2007, PS2 is now rapidly declining in hardware and software sales in the Americas and to a lesser extent, in Others. For all the talk of Wii expanding the gaming demographic, it’s still more likely than not that the reason Wii can move ~700k+ in four weeks in the Americas in a non-holiday month is because most or a large plurality of PS2 owners are now choosing Wii. One thing to watch is Sony dropping the PS2 price regionally or worldwide, as it could slow uptake for the new machines since they are still expensive and have less varied libraries than PS2 does.

5) Trends are now defined. In 2007, it was still somewhat possible for a big game and a price cut to counteract the emerging trends like Wii hardware sales. Halo 3 and a price cut gave Xbox 360 Wii like sales in the West for a short time in 2007. But now, Wii is clearly the console of choice in all three regions in terms of sales. Wii outsold Xbox 360 and PS3 combined during GTAIV week by over 20%. If both rival machines had received a price cut during or before that week Wii probably would have lost some momentum, but the trend would not have changed especially since nearly 700,000 Wiis sold during the same week. However, had a drop occurred, Sony and Microsoft would have had to bear massive losses to make the bleeding edge console tech affordable, so the question was whether to sacrifice money or market share, and either proposition is a win for Nintendo. Sometime in the seven month period between October 2007 and April 2008 it became pretty clear that no individual game for Xbox 360 or PS3 was going to change the overall trend of strong Wii sales since Halo 3, both GTAs, both Dynasty Warriors 6s, Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank, both Rockbands, both Devil May Cry 4s, Uncharted, both Call of Duty 4s, and others which were not (and most of which will never be) available for Wii did not change the trend, even when released in succession. Price is undoubtedly still a major factor. However, PS3 does not cost more than two times as much as Wii in any region anymore ($250 vs. $400 or $500 in the US as an example), and it is still outsold by Wii by 2:1 to 4:1 except in weeks when PS3 gets a huge release (GTAIV, DMC4, MGS4) or when Wii is supply constrained.. Xbox 360 is already cheaper than Wii in some regions, and that hasn’t pushed sales anywhere near Wii levels yet. Sony seems to know this, which is why it doesn’t look like Sony will go rushing into a price cut it can’t afford when all it would do is ‘narrow the growth of the gap’ with a minor price cut, or cost an arm and a leg with a major price cut ($150+ cut).

 

Compared to 2007 then, Wii should see greater growth in second half sales if supply holds, while Xbox 360 will likely similar but slightly less growth in second half sales, and PS3 will see less growth in second half sales if the pricing holds. In essence, PS3 and Xbox 360 will see more sales in the first half of 2008 relative to the second half of the year while Wii will see fewer sales in the first half of 2008 relative to a stronger second half than last year. With those adjustments, final sales for 2008 should look something like this under the assumptions outlined above:

 

1st 1/2 07'

2nd 1/2 07'

2007 Sales

1st 1/2/Tot

Wii

5,942,801

10,305,204

16,248,005

0.366

PS3

2,512,322

5,128,596

7,640,918

0.329

Xbox 360

2,397,432

5,506,570

7,904,002

0.303

1st 1/2 08'

2nd 1/2 08'

2008 Sales

1st 1/2/Tot

Wii

9,263,070

17,329,059

26,592,129

0.348

PS3

4,966,312

8,250,061

13,216,373

0.376

Xbox 360

3,695,503

7,878,882

11,574,385

0.319

 

The italicized sales estimates for 2008 totals would mean 51.383m current generation consoles sold, roughly 60% higher than previous peak years 2002 which was the absolute hardware peak of the PS2 generation and 2007 the highest peak of the Wii generation so far.

 

As a final note on what 2008 sales could mean for the Christmas shopping season here is what year over year increases of 60% would mean for Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3 in November and December (nine weeks).

 

07' Nov-Dec

Holiday Avg 07'

Wii

5,965,833

662,870

PS3

3,397,174

377,464

Xbox 360

3,208,277

356,475

Nov/Dec 08' = 07' *1.6

Holiday Avg 08'

Wii

9,545,333

1,060,593

PS3

5,435,478

603,942

Xbox 360

5,133,243

570,360

 

As amazing as it was in 2007 when an average of roughly 1.4 million current generation machines sold per holiday weeks, we could easily have 2.2 million current generation machines sold over holiday weeks in 2008 if the current trends hold up.

 

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com


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obieslut (on 08 July 2008)

you really have put alot of thought into this, well done, it is a really good read.


trestres (on 08 July 2008)

@Ufogang: Lol you make me laugh every week at the charts. You don't know what the hell is Nintendo holding for E3. Nintendo will announce their big guns for this holidays, and reinforce the current Nintendomination.


ufogang (on 08 July 2008)

Wii arsenals are at it's peak.No new Mario, No new Mario's sports. Xbox360 is at comfortable level which softwares are on par with Wii in sell numbers.


johnsobas (on 08 July 2008)

wii is gonna be absolutely red hot this holiday season, if nintendo doesn't meet the demand they may not get many of this customers back. Wii will probably not be as popular next holiday season, this will probably be the peak.


misterd (on 08 July 2008)

Great analysis! I loves me my numbers, and there's lots to crunch here. If these predictions hold, then Iwould say Wii will do about as well as I expected (about 45m), 360 just under (about 29 - I was expecting low 30s, though the price cut may get it there), and the PS3 just above (low 20s, I was expecting high teens). It is still almost impossible for the PS3 to catch the 360 this year or most of next, but all in all I have to give credit to Sony for turning the PS3 sitation around. While still far from the success they wanted, it is no longer a joke, and only the 360s head start has let it keep its superior position on the charts. Now if we project a bit further, and these trends continue into 2009, I think it is inevitable that the Wii will hit the 50% market share some time next summer, maybe even in the spring if they get production up enough.


arsenal009 (on 07 July 2008)

Damn, Wii won in hardware every week except for one. They are owning the competition.


Kenology (on 07 July 2008)

Great job, The Source.


davidwes (on 07 July 2008)

So Take Two is on the top list of sellers and EA is not ... Yet its take two that is going to be bought???


Retrasado (on 07 July 2008)

@DirtyP2002 Actually, this time around, 2nd and 3rd place won't be as bad as it was the last two generations. While it is unrealistic to expect the Wii to sell over 150 million consoles by the start of the next generation (this would require sales of more than 21 million per year for 7 straight years), it is not a stretch to predict that the PS3 and 360 will finish around 50 or 60 million. This would mean that 2nd + 3rd place would be 73% (110/150) of first place. Last gen, 2nd + 3rd place was 24 million + 21 million = 45 million vs. 120 million for first place. This is equal to only 38%.


scydrex (on 07 July 2008)

Nintendo could call this holiday season ''A Million a wiik''. I think it is entirely within the realm of possibility. The problem is, however, at least given the console's recent history, I don't know if they can ramp up production and/or stockpile such a huge amount of machines to meet such an unprecedented demand for a videogaming console. I'm pretty sure that at the beggining of '08 they set a goal to ensure they meet all the demand they can this holiday season. But it's still going to be very, very difficult, as demand seems to be insatiable right now (has been for over a year).


DirtyP2002 (on 07 July 2008)

Again, the Wii pwnes them both. Sony AND Microsoft have no chance against Nintendo this time. To be honest it is not that interesting if the ps3 or the 360 will get the 2nd place, as long as the no. 1 outsells them 2.5:1


Cheebee (on 06 July 2008)

Whoa, look at all those comparisons, charts, statistics, sales numbers and predictions! I'm beginning to suspect TheSource isn't human.. :p Interesting read, appreciate all the work! :)


MANUELF (on 06 July 2008)

Nintendo dominate software and hardware this year =)


Soriku (on 06 July 2008)

1 million Wiis a week would be :O By looking at numbers, I exoect Wii to be at (or near) 45 mil, while the PS3 is around 20-21 mil and the 360 is at 26-27 mil or so. If these numbers stay true then we could expect the Wii to amass 50% market share by early next year as I expected. Honestly, too much is going for the Wii right now for it NOT to be able to amass 50% market share. I think the "war" between the PS3 and 360 in terms WW sales will be intersting to watch as well.


Retrasado (on 06 July 2008)

Wow, awesome analysis Source. "Six weeks of 1,000,000 sales for the Wii" Wow. That's just incredible we can even consider that possibility...


Aidman (on 06 July 2008)

Xbox360 = America. Ps3 = Europe. Nintendo -------------------> The World.


Dark Odin (on 06 July 2008)

good article!! really good! :) so PS3 already is 1.2 million close this year to 360. by the end of 08 it might reach about 1.5-2 million closer than it is now. cool to see that in Europe the GTA PS3 is the most sold game so far.


Snake612 (on 06 July 2008)

If 360 drops their price, the sales will increase. the ps3 had at least one week to have increasing sales. the wii will continue to do the same in the 2nd half of 2008.


Str8knox (on 06 July 2008)

Wii!


Esmoreit (on 06 July 2008)

Awesome write-up. Can we expect something similair for the handhelds?


johnsobas (on 06 July 2008)

PSP had the #1 selling game, but PSP was very far from selling more software than DS. PSP has sold 19 million software, and 4 million of those are monster hunter. It still has a tie ratio of 2 games per system, which is horrible. PSP has made strides lately, but lets not forget what the situation really is.


Renar (on 06 July 2008)

Very good analysis. Great presentation. The one chart that caught my attention was the 'floor/roof' total sales for the first half of 2008. Especially the Wii, which looks like a rising tide of sales, where the low sales on 1/12, go higher, then ebb down to a higher low, 2/16 of 239K, and so forth until the last low of 6/14 is 297K. Assuming this trend continues, weekly lows for the Wii should never be below 300K for the rest of the year, and usually much higher. @Gearbox - Wii Gen vs PS2 Gen chart is just trying to show the first 8 years of the last (PS2 gen's console sales) with estimates of how the PS2 final sales will die out (years 9 - 13) vs the first 4 years of the current (Wii gen's console sales) with estimates of their final sales (years 5 - 13). Perhaps a bit more of an explaination plus a more visual way of showing what was actual sales (say in solid) and estimates (say in slashed lines within the bar) would have been better. Thus last gen sales of years 1 - 7 would have been as shown, year 8 half solid, half slash (the estimated part) and years 9 to 13 as slash bars. The same for the current generation, of course, with year 4 being the half solid, half slash bar. @MonatanaHatchet - Perhaps no one espected those two in particular to stop the Wii sales, but both did sell over 1M copies from 10/07 till now, thus making them 'worthy' of being put on the list. Source could have said 'No individual game selling over 1M+ for the PS3 or X360 ...' but that would have lost some of the impact that he was trying to go for.


hunter_alien (on 06 July 2008)

PSP was #1 in hardware in the first half , and it had the #1 software in Japan :D But dont forget kids , its dead :P


stranne (on 06 July 2008)

@Gearbox, "Year one in 2000 for the PS2 generation (PS2-Xbox-GC), year one is 2005 for the Wii generation".


aiden.cronus (on 06 July 2008)

you are a God among us gamers :)


MontanaHatchet (on 05 July 2008)

Great analysis. However, when you were listing games that failed to stop the Wii's trend of strong sales, some of the games didn't even make much sense. Who really expected Ratchet & Clank or Uncharted to slow down the Wii? There have been only a couple games that have been hyped up to put one console over the Wii (Metal Gear Solid 4, Halo 3), but your list is terrible. But I still like your analysis!


Gearbox (on 05 July 2008)

Wii Gen vs PS2 Gen makes NO SENSE\!!!!!


EaglesEye379 (on 05 July 2008)

Great analysis. 2008 is looking like a behemoth year.


Imthelegend (on 05 July 2008)

@ shams maybe Nintendo is stockpiling Wiis for the xmas season and that explains the increased sales of wii. @ thesource i love reading your articles another great job.


shams (on 05 July 2008)

Excellent article, and I agree completely :) I think the PS3 will struggle to get the 2nd-half growth from last year - unless there is another price cut on the cards (unlikely at this stage). Your predicted ratio seems about right to me. MS will have excellent growth in the 2nd-half of this year, and may exceed last year. If MS manage to time price cuts, a new model & AAA-games (which can sell to a new audience) - they could almost match the PS3 for full-year sales. The Wii is just an unknown, and I still think it will be limited by manufacturing levels rather than anything else. At 2.4m(?) per month for the next 6 months, this is roughly 15m (which is slightly under your prediction) - but there could be a "flood" of units in stores from the last half hanging over. And if your predictions are correct, I think my sig figures (done 6 months ago exactly!) will end up pretty correct: End '08 predictions: DS 90m, Wii 45m, PSP 43m, PS3 19m, 360 25m Wii: 28m + 17m (2nd half) = 45m PS3: 13m + 8m (2nd half) = 21m (I underestimated first half growth) 360: 19m + 8m (2nd half) = 26m (close, but I always end up underestimating the 360 :P) ... And on thing I noticed from the weekly sales table at the top: PS3 weekly sales strongest at the start of the year, and have definitely weakened at the end. 360 weekly sales are pretty (very) consistent. Wii sales are all over the place - but have averaged higher at the tail end. Sony may have to do something about this, or they could lose a lot of momentum in the qrt heading up to the Xmas qrt. Finally - its amazing that MGS didn't make the top#10 software list for either US or Others :P - it must be *real* close...


Sullla (on 05 July 2008)

I don't really have anything extra to add, so I'll simply tip my cap to TheSource for another magnificent sales analysis piece.


trestres (on 05 July 2008)

Superb analysis.


outlawauron (on 05 July 2008)

Wow, great anaylsis. That's a whole lot of sales!!


marciosmg (on 05 July 2008)

Great analysis as always, TheSource. The Wii surely is a monster. A question though. If (or when) there is a 360 price cut and Sony doesn´t answer, what do you think will be the new weekly sales for each console? Do you have any estimate, at least for the first few weeks?


TWRoO (on 05 July 2008)

That's a lot of consoles, I have a feeling all 3 look a little high, but then I underestimated last year too so perhaps I am wrong. (I think Wii will fall short of that by a good million, though not for a lack of purchasers.... PS3 and 360 I would guess 500k+ lower too) Excellent read as usual.


kopstudent89 (on 05 July 2008)

brilliant!!!


Rhonin the wizard (on 05 July 2008)

That's long. I'm going to read this tomorrow.


BengaBenga (on 05 July 2008)

Applause! Brilliant evaluation. 9.5 million Wii's in Nov/Dec is going to be mayhem, software will be through the roof as well. What I'm really interested in is July-October. Interesting to see how sales hold up without blockbuster releases.


evo03 (on 05 July 2008)

Great writeup! Do you plan on doing a similar one for software?


Fei-Hung (on 05 July 2008)

wow thats a lot of numbers. I hope the 360 does drop its price. It's the only way they will be able to boost their sales after the continues weeks of being out sold by the ps3. As for the PS3, they better bring out some of those titles that they keep showing on shows and delaying for the umpteenth time.